Wedbush Analyst Dan Ives: Believes the Probability of Tesla and SpaceX Merging is 80%-90%
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives stated that he believes there is an 80%-90% probability of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX before the end of 2027, citing strategic synergies driven by artificial intelligence and data, and calling it the right move for Musk.
Ives noted that both companies' boards have established special committees to analyze the pros and cons of the deal and its pricing; he has previously given an approximately 80% probability forecast for the merger and emphasized that it would allow investors to access both companies' AI-related businesses through a single entity.
Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees composed of independent directors to discuss the possibility of a merger at the request of shareholders; Musk is unable to participate in discussions due to conflicts of interest and stated that the committees have not reached any agreements on any transactions and do not guarantee that a deal will ultimately be reached.
Musk referred to the merger as "a good idea" during a SpaceX earnings call, pointing out areas for collaboration in superintelligence, chip design, robotics, Terafab, and Starlink connectivity; he also emphasized that Tesla needs to gain 50% support from all shareholders, which is a high threshold.
Ives has long viewed both companies as part of the AI and data ecosystem, previously noting that Tesla's investment in xAI has been converted into shares after SpaceX's acquisition, as well as their collaboration in chip manufacturing; Barclays analysts have also discussed the possibility of disclosing the deal before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting.
SpaceX completed its IPO this year, with a market value of approximately $2 trillion, while Tesla's market value is around $1.5 trillion; if merged, it would become one of the largest corporate transactions in history, but the committees are currently only in the review stage.
From a market mechanism perspective, the analysts' probability and the establishment of committees are driven by expectations and formal procedures, and funds may reprice the shares of both companies before the certainty of the transaction increases; beneficiaries are shareholders supporting the integration and AI-related businesses, while those under pressure are shareholders who are cautious about valuation or changes in control.
ABAB AI Insight
As a Wedbush analyst, Dan Ives has long tracked Musk-related companies and has repeatedly publicly predicted a high probability of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX; there have previously been capital and technological ties between the two companies, including Tesla's investment in xAI being converted into shares after SpaceX's acquisition, as well as their joint chip project.
The capital pathway involves reviewing the transaction structure and pricing through special committees, integrating existing collaborations (chips, robotics, connectivity) into a single entity; the motivation is to enable AI, data, robotics, and space infrastructure to collaborate under the same control while providing investors with a single entry point, making the capital allocation of Musk-related ecosystems more concentrated.
This is similar to historical cases where technology companies merged to integrate complementary capabilities, such as early internet platform integrations or vertical integration attempts between automotive and technology companies; currently, both companies are publicly listed, and investments in AI and robotics are accelerating.
Essentially, it involves capital concentration and industrial chain restructuring: by merging vehicle data, robotics, chips, and satellite connectivity into a single entity, the mechanism starts with the board committee review, allowing resources and decision-making to be more closely integrated between superintelligence and physical world applications, enabling supporting capital to gain synergistic expectations, while opposing parties face reevaluation of valuation and governance structures.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
- High probability predictions often precede the formal establishment of committees.
- Conflicted parties withdrawing from discussions does not mean the transaction will not proceed.
- A single entity turns complementary technologies into a unified valuation story.