Polymarket Predicts Probability of Clarity Act Passing in 2026 Drops to 27%
Polymarket prediction market shows that the probability of the U.S. "Clarity Act" becoming law in 2026 has dropped to 27%, a decrease of 38 percentage points from its previous high, as traders grow increasingly pessimistic about the bill's passage this year.
The bill was passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294-134, and was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026, with a vote of 15-9. However, the Senate postponed its review in late July, and the legislative window is narrowing as the August recess approaches.
Institutions like Galaxy Digital have also lowered the probability of passage to 30%, reflecting a lack of consensus between the White House and law enforcement on "illegal financial concerns," with core provisions of the bill (CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodities) still under dispute.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The legislative process of the Clarity Act reflects a typical "U.S. crypto regulatory tug-of-war": rapid passage in the House in 2025 (bipartisan support), advancement in the Senate Banking Committee in 2026, but postponement of Senate review in July, reflecting the tug-of-war between "law enforcement concerns (anti-money laundering/sanctions evasion)" and "industry demands (regulatory certainty)".
Similar cases can be compared to the failed path of the 2023 "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" (RFIA) — also promoted by Lummis-Gillibrand, it faced "law enforcement opposition + internal Democratic resistance" in the Senate and ultimately did not reach a full vote, reflecting the structural obstacles faced by "crypto-friendly bills" in Congress.
On the capital path, Polymarket's prediction market has shifted from 0% in December 2025 (passage in 2025) → 47% in June 2026 → 27% in July 2026, forming an emotional cycle of "hope → disappointment → repricing," similar to the process of inclusion → removal → renegotiation of crypto provisions in the 2021 infrastructure bill.
Essentially, this reflects the "closing of the legislative window" in regulatory changes: as the congressional recess approaches and midterm election pressures rise, "controversial bills" are crowded out by higher-priority issues (budget, immigration, foreign affairs), with the underlying mechanism being the crypto industry’s lack of a "ironclad voting bloc" in Congress, making it difficult to exert cross-district pressure.
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