Musk Predicts AI and Robots Will Make Work Optional in 10 to 20 Years
Elon Musk has stated in several public appearances that as AI and robotics continue to advance, work will become optional in the next 10 to 20 years, akin to a hobby rather than a necessity for survival; digital jobs will be replaced more quickly.
At events like the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum, he mentioned that AI and robots could produce goods and services at near-zero cost, significantly reducing the correlation between work and money, and referred to "universal high income" rather than just basic income.
Musk pointed out that digital work (tasks done in front of a computer) will be rapidly taken over by AI, comparing it to how digital computers replaced manual calculations; physical jobs (welding, cooking, agriculture, etc.) will last longer.
After a White House meeting, he stated, "Work will change," and noted that current AI has not yet led to a surge in unemployment, with still a high demand for human labor; he also predicted that humanoid robots like Optimus will expand their applications in fields like healthcare.
In related discussions, Musk compared work to the choice between growing vegetables and buying them at the store, emphasizing that under abundant conditions, people can choose whether to work; he also suggested that young people acquire broad knowledge to understand how to make demands of AI and robots.
Digital positions and time-based tasks face accelerated replacement pressure, while physical and judgment-based jobs are relatively less pressured; capital and attention are flowing towards robots, computing power, and infrastructure, while individuals and service companies that rely on selling time need to adjust their positioning.
Musk has repeatedly stated that AI is a "supersonic tsunami" that will significantly change the workplace, but the transformation process will come with shocks.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Musk has long promoted autonomous driving and the Optimus robot through Tesla, and has laid out models through xAI. His public predictions of rapid automation of digital work and the longer survival of physical work align with his company's product trajectory; previously, he referred to ChatGPT as one of the risks to civilization, but later shifted to emphasize abundance and optional work.
He is pushing for capital investment in robot production and AI training, causing the model of selling labor by the hour to be impacted first in the digital realm, while shifting the long-term narrative from employment anxiety to universal high income and optional work, reducing societal resistance to short-term replacements.
This is similar to the historical path of mechanical replacement of manual labor and computers replacing calculators during the Industrial Revolution; currently, AI is in a phase of rapidly compressing digital tasks, while physical tasks still require time, with time-based knowledge work facing pressure first.
Essentially, this is a reconstruction of labor pricing within technological replacement; as digital labor is replaced by code and models, the exchange value of time itself decreases, with surplus value shifting towards judgment, ownership, and the ability to question the system, putting pressure on the model of simply selling time.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
Once digital work is taken over, time will no longer be the primary medium of exchange
Physical operations will last longer, with judgment and ownership becoming new anchors
Before abundance arrives, the window for time-based compensation will close first