正的自信，往往来自于你亲眼看到自己打造的东西在现实世界中真正运转并奏效。 Real confidence tends to come from seeing something you built work in the real world

Greg IsenbergCEO of Late Checkout

2025/12/17 01:29 UTC

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正的自信，往往来自于你亲眼看到自己打造的东西在现实世界中真正运转并奏效。

Real confidence tends to come from seeing something you built work in the real world

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2026 年，是过去 30 年里创业的最佳时机我今年 36 岁。我卖掉过 3 家创业公司，参与搭建过融资规模达数十亿美元的公司，也从种子轮一路支持团队成长为独角兽。下面是 20 个“超级级别”的结构性转变，让现在成为一代人中最好的创业窗口期： 1. 硬件变聪明了把 HuggingFace 上的开源 AI 模型下载到廉价机器人上，它们立刻就“有脑子”了。这一下打开了大量全新的应用场景。 2. SaaS 正在崩塌 AI 可以用极低成本复制原本价值 50 万美元的软件。过去需要 30 个工程师的企业软件，现在只需要 1 个人 + 一个 Claude Code 订阅。创始人会走向更细分、更定制化的方向，用价格直接击穿老牌厂商。 3. 按结果付费正在吞噬订阅制当 AI agent 能自动完成工作，创始人就可以承诺结果，而不是卖功能。这为从僵化的订阅模式中抢夺市场份额，创造了巨大的套利空间。 4. “氛围式营销”成为新营销 Lindy、Gemini、Claude Code 等 AI agent 工具已经可以做高度个性化的外联、广告和内容创作，而且效果正在快速变好。这感觉就像 2005 年刚上社交媒体。 5. 社交平台全面 FYP 化分发不再依赖庞大的粉丝基础，只要内容“打中”。创始人可以零广告成本从 0 建立受众，然后转化为自有渠道（短信 / 邮件）。 6. 界面正在消失对话正在取代各行各业的仪表盘。这消除了学习和培训成本，用户可以立刻使用复杂产品。 7. 企业正在疯狂追求效率和降本公司预算正在向 AI 重新分配。传统软件支出被砍，为 AI 驱动的替代方案腾空间。这让能提供 10 倍效率的初创公司更容易快速通过审批。 8. 99% 的 MVP 不再需要 VC 低成本 MVP + 创作者合作 + AI 自动化，可以实现自举增长。对大多数软件公司来说，外部融资已经不再是必需品。 9. 全球化团队成为常态你不再需要只在自己城市招人。这打开了大量套利空间，也让产品形态变得前所未有。 10. 数以百万计的创作者想要变现如果你有合适的产品 + 合适的创作者网络，可以极高效率地规模化。这是历史上第一次出现这种条件。下一代创始人正在先建社区，再做软件。 11. 原型几乎是即时的用 Lovable、Rork 等工具，想法可以几天内测试，而不是几个月。MVP 速度≈每周一个。这让小公司可以同时孵化多个产品（多项目创业），更快找到 PMF。 12. LLM API 每周都在提供新积木我已经跟不上每周新增的 LLM API 和工具数量了。举例：Nano Banana Pro 一上线，可能就有 1000 个构建在它之上的点子，每个都可能是年入 500 万美元的生意。 13. 人均营收 100 万美元将变得常见在 LLM、社区和 agent 的杠杆下，员工效率极高。小团队拥有多个产品 / 业务的“多重创业”将兴起，控股公司会像初创公司一样普遍。 14. “超级细分”成为新主流因为创业成本降到原来的 1/100，你可以服务非常小的细分市场（我称之为 superniche），依然能做出改变人生的生意。 15. 移动 App 生态即将 10 倍增长原因有两个：第一，AI 让 App 变得更有用；更有用的 App，赚更多钱。第二，（未完，承接下条） 16. 合规和“无聊流程”突然变得可做许可证、审计、保险、薪资边界情况、申报、RFP。这些过去对初创来说“太烦人”。但 agent 天生擅长规则、清单和重复。最不性感的问题，现在拥有最好的单位经济模型。 17. Claude Code 杀死了“工程瓶颈” 限制不再是“能不能做出来”，而是“是否足够理解真实工作流”。赢家是把隐性经验编码进 agent 的前从业者。代码很便宜，审美 + 行业洞察极度稀缺。 18. 软件长尾开始真正盈利过去只能做到 20 万 ARR 的小众市场，现在可以轻松做到 500 万美元，边际成本接近 0。 19. 服务业正在悄然软件化人工代理公司，只差一个 agent，就能拥有产品级利润率。 20. 如果 AI 能用 20 美元 / 月复制 50 万美元的软件，你的护城河是什么？分发、客户服务、品牌、数据等。这真的是世界级设计师 / 营销人的黄金时代。（还有更多……但已经太长了）我们正进入一个极其罕见的窗口期多项技术变革在同一时间点发生碰撞，让小团队能做出过去不可能的事情。未来的创业方式，已经彻底不同了。我很确定这一点。这个时刻不会永远存在。市场会适应，巨头会反击，窗口会关闭。但现在，一个有清晰愿景、敢于行动的创始人，6 个月能做出的东西，过去需要几年。下一代伟大的公司，正在此刻被创造出来。很多创始人你从未听说过。其中一些人在过去的周期里，根本没有机会。这正是这种稀有窗口的魅力：竞争场地短暂地被拉平，未来属于看清并率先行动的人。这是一个神圣的时间。别收藏、别转发。2026 年，去做点东西吧。祝你构建愉快，我的朋友们。2026，是你的。我错了吗？ 2026 is the GREATEST time to build a startup in 30 years I’m 36. I’ve sold 3 startups, helped build companies that raised billions, and backed teams from seed to unicorn. 20 MEGA shifts that make this the BEST time to build in a GENERATION: 1. Hardware got smart. Download open-source AI models from HuggingFace to cheap robots and they're suddenly smart. Opens up tons of use-cases. 2. SaaS is imploding. AI can replicate $500K software for pennies. Enterprise software that took 30 engineers now requires 1 and a Claude Code subscription. Founders will go more niche and more custom and outprice incumbents. 3. Outcome-based pricing is eating subscriptions. With AI agents handling work automatically, founders can guarantee results instead of selling features. This creates a massive arbitrage opportunity to steal market share from rigid subscription models. 4. Vibe marketing is the new marketing. AI agents/tools like Lindy, Gemini and Claude Code Using agents to do personalized outreach, ads and content creation it’s getting good. This is like getting on social in 2005. 5. Social is FYP-ified. Distribution no longer requires massive followings, just content that hits. Founders can build audience from zero without ads and then convert them to owned media channels (text/email). 6. Interfaces are vanishing. Conversations are replacing dashboards across industries. This removes training barriers and means customers can use sophisticated products immediately. 7. Companies are obsessed with efficiency and cutting costs right now. Corporate budgets are getting reallocated to AI. Companies are cutting traditional software spend to make room for AI-powered alternatives. This creates fast-tracked approvals for startups delivering 10x efficiency. 8. 99% of MVPs won't need VC. Low-cost MVPs combined with creator partnerships and AI automation allow bootstrapped scaling. For most software businesses, outside funding is now unnecessary. 9. Global teams. You don’t need to hire in your own city anymore. Opens up tons of arbitrage opportunities and ways to create products unlike before. 10. Millions of creators want to get paid. If you have the right product, the right network of creators, you can hit scale insanely efficiently. Never before did this exist. Next gen founders are building startups community first, software second. 11. Prototyping is nearly instant. With Lovable, Rork etc, you can test ideas in days, not months. MVP speed is basically 1x/week. This creates room for multiple products from small companies (multipreneurship), helps get to PMF faster, 12. LLM APIs create building blocks weekly. I can’t even keep up with how many new APIs/tools coming out from LLMs weekly. Example: Nano Banana pro comes out, probably 1000 ideas built on top of that can be $5M/year businesses. 13. $1m+ revenue per employee. With the leverage of LLMs, community and agents, employees are way more efficient. It won’t be uncommon to generate $1m per employee. This will lead to a rise of "multipreneurship", small teams owning multiple products /businesses. Holding companies will be as common as startups. 14. Superniche is the new niche. Because costs to create software startups is 1/100th, you can service little niches (i call them superniches) and still have a life-changing business. 15. Mobile app ecosystem about to 10X. 2 reasons. First is, adding AI to apps make apps more useful. More useful apps, make more money. Second, 16. Compliance and boring workflows are suddenly buildable. Permits, audits, insurance, payroll edge cases, filings, RFPs. These were “too annoying” for startups before. Agents thrive on rules, checklists, and repetition. The least sexy problems now have the best unit economics. 17. Claude Code killed the “engineering bottleneck.” The constraint is no longer “can we build it,” it’s “do we understand the workflow deeply enough.” The winning founders are ex-operators who encode tribal knowledge into agents. Code is cheap. Taste + domain insight is scarce. 18. The long tail of software is now profitable. Niches that capped at $200k ARR can clear $5M with near-zero marginal cost. 19. Services are quietly becoming software. 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主持人在美国德克萨斯州奥斯汀采访了多位亿万富翁、成功企业家和知名人士，探讨的核心问题是：他们是否相信上帝，以及信仰对他们的成功有何影响 1. 成功者的共同信仰与价值观信仰是成功的基石：绝大多数受访的顶级成功人士都明确表示自己相信上帝。他们认为成功并非仅仅依靠个人的努力，而是源于上帝的计划（God's plan）和恩典 “摔跤”产生亲近：退役海军陆战队员、现任 Veteran Fund 负责人分享道，真正的信仰不是盲目接受一切，而是通过与上帝“摔跤”（质疑和思考）来加深关系。他认为越是质疑和探索，反而离上帝越近目的感驱动：成功人士普遍认为，知道自己“为什么在这里”比拥有多少财富更重要。当你有了一个上帝赋予的使命（God-given purpose），你就不会害怕失败 2. 关键人物观点 Tim Tebow（前 NFL 球员、慈善家）：信仰观：他认为相信一切都是由“无”创造出来的，比相信有一位充满爱的创造者需要更大的勇气。上帝不仅是全能的，也是个人的。使命感：他退役后致力于打击人口贩卖和保护受剥削儿童，认为这是最有价值的事情人生建议： “最大的悲剧是在那些无关紧要的事情上获得了成功。”他强调要追求能够留下长远影响（Legacy）的事物，而不仅仅是遗产（Inheritance） Clint（医疗保健大亨，曾以 4.6 亿美元出售公司）：出身贫寒：他曾住在车里，经历了极大的挣扎，但这让他确信上帝对他有更大的安排关于 AI：他认为所有创业者现在都必须适应 AI，他的公司已经在医疗领域深度使用 AI 工具人际圈子： “如果你周围的朋友都觉得你很棒，说明你进错房间了。”他建议年轻人要加入那些能让自己感到“地位最低”的圈子，以便不断学习 Allison 与其合伙人（曾以 20 亿美元将公司卖给百事可乐）：婚姻与事业：他们是结婚 12 年的生活伴侣和事业伙伴。信任是他们关系和事业的基调关于尴尬： Allison 认为“尴尬”是成功路上最被低估的情绪。你必须勇于表现得像个傻瓜，才能获得真正的精进和自信不退休：即使拥有 20 亿美元，他们依然选择继续创业，因为“自由不等于目的” 3. 商业与领导力建议现代炼金术：创业被比作“现代炼金术”，即将一个虚无的想法变成现实克服恐惧与疑虑：每一个成功的富翁都曾怀疑过自己。克服方式是专注于自己的责任和长期目标无平衡的努力：受访的富翁提到，想要获得常人无法企及的东西，就不能追求所谓的“生活平衡” 适应性： Clint 强调，当前环境下，AI 是所有企业家必须拥有的核心竞争力 4. 人生哲学不要等到死才活出自我：受访者引用了布朗尼·维尔关于“临终前五大遗憾”的研究，其中第一大遗憾是“没有勇气过属于自己的生活”。他建议年轻人不要等到临终才去践行这一点世界属于敢想敢干的人：引用史蒂夫·乔布斯的话——这个世界是由不比你聪明的人创造的，所以只要有梦想并付出努力，就能去改变它总结观点：传递的信息是：在顶尖财富阶层，信仰、目的感、对人才的包容以及对新技术的拥抱是成功的核心。大多数亿万富翁不仅承认上帝的存在，还将其视为自己能够度过低谷并攀登巅峰的最终动力。School · 2026/03/23