我又和一家管理规模超过 500 亿美元的咨询机构通了电话。这些机构正在耐心地看多，并不断强化自己的信念。 I jumped on a call with a $50b+ advisory firm. The institutions are patiently bullish and building conviction.

Matt HouganCIO, BitwiseInvest

2025/11/24 21:06 UTC

观点原文

我又和一家管理规模超过 500 亿美元的咨询机构通了电话。这些机构正在耐心地看多，并不断强化自己的信念。

I jumped on a call with a $50b+ advisory firm.

The institutions are patiently bullish and building conviction.

Bitcoin

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1/ 我看到很多对 DAT（数字资产金库公司，Digital Asset Treasury Companies）的糟糕分析。尤其是：关于它们的股价究竟应该高于、低于，还是等于它们所持有资产价值（即所谓的 “mNAV”）的讨论，很多观点都很离谱。 2/ 在评估一家 DAT 时，首先需要问自己一个问题：如果这家公司有一个固定的寿命（固定存续期），它会值多少钱？ 3/ 如果你把时间尺度拉到非常短，这种评估方式的价值就很明显。举个例子：假设你有一家比特币 DAT，它宣布将在今天下午关闭，并把所持有的比特币全部分发给投资者。在这种情况下，它的交易价格会完全等于它所持比特币的价值（mNAV = 1.0）。 4/ 现在把时间范围拉长一点。如果这家公司宣布一年后才关闭呢？这时你就必须开始思考：有哪些原因会让这家 DAT 的股价高于或低于它所持有比特币的价值？ 5/ 有三大原因会让一家 DAT 出现折价交易：流动性差、费用、以及风险。 6/ 流动性差（Illiquidity）：你不会愿意用今天的价格去买一年后才能收到的比特币。但你愿意付某个折扣后的价格。你会要求 5% 的折扣吗？ 10% 的折扣？如果是我，10% 折扣我肯定会接受。而这种折扣要求，会降低这家 DAT 的估值。 7/ 费用（Expenses）：任何用于运营支出或高管薪酬的费用，最终都来自你的口袋。想象一下，我们这家 12 个月后关闭的 DAT，每股持有价值 100 美元的比特币，但每年要支付给高管相当于每股 10 美元的费用。那你当然会要求对净资产价值（NAV）打 10% 的折扣。 8/ 风险（Risk）：公司总有可能在某些方面出差错。你也必须把这种风险因素计入价格之中。 9/ 现在再来看为什么 DAT 会出现溢价交易。在美国，原因只有一个：如果它能够不断提升“每股所持加密资产数量”（crypto-per-share）。我见过 DAT 用四种主要方式来做到这一点。 10/ 发行债务（Issuing Debt）：如果公司以美元形式举债（借钱），然后用这些美元去购买加密资产，而加密资产相对于美元上涨，那么公司就可以在之后偿还债务，同时让每股所持加密资产（crypto-per-share）增加。这基本上就是 Strategy（指 MicroStrategy）提高其每股比特币数量（BTC-per-share）的主要方式。（当然，如果比特币价格下跌，结果也可能反过来。） 11/ 出借加密资产（Lending Crypto）：如果你把加密资产借出去，并获得利息回报，就可以让每股所持加密资产（crypto-per-share）增加。 12/ 使用衍生品（Using Derivatives）：如果你持有加密资产，并对其卖出看涨期权（writing calls）等操作，你可以通过收取权利金来获得收入，从而购买更多该资产、提升每股持有量。当然，这样做的代价是：你可能会放弃资产价格上涨带来的收益。 13/ 以折扣价格获取加密资产（Acquiring Crypto at a Discount）：一家公司（DAT）可以通过多种方式以折扣价获得加密资产，例如：从基金会（Foundation）购买锁定期资产：基金会希望出售某种代币但又不想砸盘，因此愿意以折扣出售；收购另一家处于折价交易的 DAT；在自身股票处于折价时回购股票（buyback）；收购一家能持续产生现金流的业务，并用这些现金流去购买加密资产。这些方法都可以降低获取成本，从而提升每股所持加密资产数量（crypto-per-share）。 14/ 对 DAT 来说的一个挑战是：让它们出现折价的原因几乎都是确定的，而让它们出现溢价的理由大多是不确定的。 15/ 正因如此，DAT 的“达标线”会非常高：大多数都会以折价交易，只有极少数表现非常出色的公司才会以溢价交易。 16/ 回到我们的例子：如果你有一家将在 12 个月后清算的比特币 DAT，你可以这样评估它的价值：计算它的各项费用；加入风险折扣；再用你对其“提高每股比特币数量（bitcoin-per-share）能力”的预期来抵消部分折扣。这样得出的，就是它的公允价值（fair value）！ 18/ 你可能会想： “好吧，Matt，但 DAT 并不是有固定寿命的公司。它们是无限期存在的啊！” 19/ 这确实会让问题变得更复杂。但实际意义是：所有因素都会被放大。费用和风险会随着时间不断累积（compound），因此必须非常谨慎地关注它们。同样地，如果一家 DAT 能够持续、稳定地提升其每股加密资产数量（crypto-per-share），那么它就可能变得非常有价值。 20/ 当我审视 DAT 提升每股加密资产数量（crypto-per-share）的各种方式时，我意识到一个很明显的事实：所有这些方法都在规模变大时收益更显著。 21/ 规模更大的 DAT 会比小型 DAT 更容易做到以下几点：更容易发行债务（市场更愿意借钱给大公司）；拥有更多可供出借的加密资产；能够进入更具流动性的期权市场；能更容易获得并购（M&A）机会与各种折扣交易。换句话说，规模越大，优势越明显。 22/ 在过去六个月里，DAT 的涨跌几乎是同步的。但展望未来，我认为它们之间会出现更多的分化：有少数会执行得非常好，从而以溢价交易；有许多会执行不佳，从而以折价交易。这个模型（评估方式）就是一种帮助你判断谁属于哪一类的思考框架。 1/ I see a lot of bad analysis of DATs, or digital asset treasury companies. Specifically, I see a lot of bad takes on whether they should trade at, above, or below the value of the assets they hold (their so-called “mNAV”). 2/ The first thing to do when evaluating a DAT is ask yourself: If this company had a fixed lifespan, what would it be worth? 3/ The value of this approach is obvious if you think in very short time frames. For instance: Imagine you had a bitcoin DAT that announced it was shutting down this afternoon and distributing its bitcoin to investors. It would trade at exactly at the value of its bitcoin (an mNAV of 1.0). 4/ Now extend your time frame. What if it announced it was shutting down in a year? Now you have to think about all the reasons our DAT should trade above or below the value of its bitcoin. Let’s review them. 5/ There are three big reasons a DAT should trade at a discount: Illiquidity, expenses, and risk. 6/ Illiquidity: You wouldn't pay full price today for bitcoin you'd receive in a year. But you would pay some price. Would you ask for 5% discount? A 10% discount? I’d definitely do it for 10%. This would reduce the value of our DAT. 7/ Expenses: Every dollar spent on operating expenses or executive compensation comes out of your pocket. Imagine our 12-month DAT held $100 of bitcoin per share, but paid executives the equivalent of $10 per share per year. You would insist on a 10% discount to NAV. 8/ Risk: There is always a risk that a company will slip up in some way. You need to bake this into the price too. 9/ Now let's look at why DATs might trade to a premium. Here in the US, there's only one: If it is increasing its crypto-per-share. There are four primary ways I've seen DATs try to do this. 10/ Issuing Debt: If you issue debt in USD and buy crypto, and crypto goes up relative to USD, you can pay off the debt and increase your crypto-per-share. This is generally how Strategy has increased its BTC-per-share. (If bitcoin's price goes down, the reverse can happen.) 11/ Lending Crypto: If you lend your crypto and receive interest payments, you can increase your crypto-per-share. 12/ Using Derivatives: If you hold crypto and do something like writing calls against it, you can generate income and acquire more of the asset. Of course, you risk forfeiting upside. 13/ Acquiring Crypto at a Discount: There are various ways a DAT might acquire crypto at a discount. It might: * Buy locked assets from a Foundation looking to sell a given asset without roiling the market; * Acquire another DAT trading at a discount; * Buy back its own shares if it they are trading at a discount; * Acquire a cash-flow generating business and use that cash flow to buy crypto. 14/ One challenge for DATs is that most of the reasons they should trade at a discount are certain and most of the reasons they might trade at a premium are uncertain. 15/ For this reason, DATs will have a high hurdle: Most will trade at a discount, and only a few exceptional firms will trade at a premium. 16/ To return to our example: If you have a bitcoin DAT that is liquidating in 12 months, you can: 1) Calculate its expenses; 2) Add a risk discount; and, 3) Offset those discounts with your expectation of its ability to increase bitcoin-per-share. That is your fair value! 18/ You might be thinking: OK Matt, but DATs don’t have a finite lifespan. They extend forever! 19/ This makes it more complex, to be sure. But really, what it means is everything is amplified. Expenses and risk compound over time, so watch those closely. Similarly, DATs that can steadily increase their crypto-per-share can be quite valuable. 20/ As I look through the ways DATs can increase their crypto-for-share, what strikes me is that every one benefits from size. 21/ Larger DATs will have an easier time issuing debt than smaller DATs; they will have more crypto to loan; they will be access a more liquid options market; they will have better access to M&A and other discount deals. 22/ For the past six months, DATs have risen and fallen together. Going forward, I think there will be more differentiation. A few will execute well and trade at a premium, and many will execute poorly and trade at a discount. This model is one way to think about which is which.Matt Hougan · 2025/11/23
全球 95% 的最大机构投资者完全没有配置比特币，但所有比特币中有 95% 已经被持有。 95% of the world’s largest investors have zero exposure to bitcoin, but 95% of all bitcoin is already owned.Matt Hougan · 2025/11/23