以下是我多年来在投资中学到的五个反直觉的经验： 1. 寻找波动，而不是回避波动大多数人被教导去寻找“安全”的资产，并用分散化来降低波动。而最优秀的投资者会寻找不对称性，并在胜率对自己有利时重仓下注。 2. 懂得如何卖，比知道买什么更重要过去 20 年我们经历了资产通胀。一只猴子随手掷飞镖，都能命中一个会上涨的资产。真正困难的是知道如何、以及何时卖出。让自己在卖出方面，和买入一样专业。 3. 当“反对意见被禁止”时，要质疑主流共识金融市场由叙事驱动。如果某个叙事被广泛接受到出现社会压力，要求你不要持不同意见，你的大脑里就该拉响警报。这往往是共识最可能出错的时候，也是你可以站在对立面的时候。 4. 投资组合里看起来“最安全”的资产，其实风险最大最好的例子是美元和美国国债。大多数理财顾问都会宣扬这些资产有多“安全”，但它们恰恰是投资组合中唯一被设计成在真实购买力层面每年都贬值的东西。不要把“无聊”和“安全”混为一谈。 5. 市场给资产定价的能力，比人们想象得强得多如果某个资产的价格低于你认为的合理水平，更有可能是你错了，而不是市场错了。去问几个熟悉该资产的人，通常就能知道原因。这并非总是如此，但市场在资产定价方面非常擅长，当你觉得自己比市场更聪明时，一定要格外谨慎。如果大家觉得这些内容有价值，我可以写一篇更长的文章，分享更多这些年来学到的原则。你学到过哪些最重要的投资原则？ Here are five counter-intuitive things I have learned about investing over the years: 1. Seek volatility, don't avoid it — most people are taught to find "safe" assets and use diversification to mitigate volatility. The best investors look for asymmetry and they bet big when odds are in their favor. 2. Knowing how to sell is more important than knowing what to buy — we have lived through an asset inflation for the last 20 years. A monkey could throw a dart and hit an investment that appreciated in value. It is much harder to know how and when to sell. Become just as good at selling as you are at buying. 3. Question the mainstream consensus when dissent is outlawed — financial markets are driven by narratives. An alarm should go off in your head if the narrative ever gets so accepted that there is social pressure to avoid dissenting. This is when the consensus is most likely wrong and you can take the other side. 4. The "safest" assets in your portfolio are actually your riskiest — the best example of this principle is US dollars and treasuries. Most financial advisors will preach how "safe" these assets are, but they are the only things in a portfolio that are engineered to lose value on a real basis every year. Don't confuse "boring" with "safe." 5. The market is much better at pricing value than people think — if an asset is trading below where you think it should, it is much more likely that you are wrong than the market. Ask a few people familiar with the asset and you can usually get the answer as to why. This is not always true, but the market is very good at pricing assets so be careful when you think you are smarter than the market. If people found this valuable, I will do a much longer write up of more principles I have learned over the years. What are some of the best ones you have learned?

Anthony PomplianoEntrepreneur, investor, and lifelong learner

2025/12/22 00:26 UTC

观点原文

以下是我多年来在投资中学到的五个反直觉的经验：

寻找波动，而不是回避波动

大多数人被教导去寻找“安全”的资产，并用分散化来降低波动。而最优秀的投资者会寻找不对称性，并在胜率对自己有利时重仓下注。

懂得如何卖，比知道买什么更重要

过去 20 年我们经历了资产通胀。一只猴子随手掷飞镖，都能命中一个会上涨的资产。真正困难的是知道如何、以及何时卖出。让自己在卖出方面，和买入一样专业。

当“反对意见被禁止”时，要质疑主流共识

金融市场由叙事驱动。如果某个叙事被广泛接受到出现社会压力，要求你不要持不同意见，你的大脑里就该拉响警报。这往往是共识最可能出错的时候，也是你可以站在对立面的时候。

投资组合里看起来“最安全”的资产，其实风险最大

最好的例子是美元和美国国债。大多数理财顾问都会宣扬这些资产有多“安全”，但它们恰恰是投资组合中唯一被设计成在真实购买力层面每年都贬值的东西。不要把“无聊”和“安全”混为一谈。

市场给资产定价的能力，比人们想象得强得多

如果某个资产的价格低于你认为的合理水平，更有可能是你错了，而不是市场错了。去问几个熟悉该资产的人，通常就能知道原因。这并非总是如此，但市场在资产定价方面非常擅长，当你觉得自己比市场更聪明时，一定要格外谨慎。

如果大家觉得这些内容有价值，我可以写一篇更长的文章，分享更多这些年来学到的原则。

你学到过哪些最重要的投资原则？

Here are five counter-intuitive things I have learned about investing over the years:

Seek volatility, don't avoid it — most people are taught to find "safe" assets and use diversification to mitigate volatility. The best investors look for asymmetry and they bet big when odds are in their favor.

Knowing how to sell is more important than knowing what to buy — we have lived through an asset inflation for the last 20 years. A monkey could throw a dart and hit an investment that appreciated in value. It is much harder to know how and when to sell. Become just as good at selling as you are at buying.

Question the mainstream consensus when dissent is outlawed — financial markets are driven by narratives. An alarm should go off in your head if the narrative ever gets so accepted that there is social pressure to avoid dissenting. This is when the consensus is most likely wrong and you can take the other side.

The "safest" assets in your portfolio are actually your riskiest — the best example of this principle is US dollars and treasuries. Most financial advisors will preach how "safe" these assets are, but they are the only things in a portfolio that are engineered to lose value on a real basis every year. Don't confuse "boring" with "safe."

The market is much better at pricing value than people think — if an asset is trading below where you think it should, it is much more likely that you are wrong than the market. Ask a few people familiar with the asset and you can usually get the answer as to why. This is not always true, but the market is very good at pricing assets so be careful when you think you are smarter than the market.

If people found this valuable, I will do a much longer write up of more principles I have learned over the years.

What are some of the best ones you have learned?

ABAB AI 解读

一、整体先读一句：这是“幸存者的逻辑”，不是“教科书的逻辑”

这五条有一个共同点：它们几乎全部违背了“理财顾问式的安全叙事”。

原因很简单：

理财顾问的目标是避免被追责
顶级投资者的目标是跨周期获胜
这是两套完全不同的优化函数。

二、逐条解读（讲它们为什么“反直觉但正确”）

1️⃣ 寻找波动，而不是回避波动

金融专家视角：波动不是风险，在错误价格下的波动，才是风险。

真正的顶级投资者要的是：不对称性（asymmetry）

即：输的时候输有限、赢的时候赢很多

而波动，正是制造这种不对称的前提条件。

👉 没有波动，就没有错误定价；没有错误定价，就没有超额收益。

2️⃣ 会卖，比会买更重要

成熟企业家视角：

过去 20 年的资产环境，本质是：“买对”被严重低估的难度。

真正稀缺的能力是：

判断什么时候逻辑已经完成
判断叙事什么时候开始变质
判断风险收益比什么时候反转

很多人：买得对，却死在“舍不得卖”

👉 这是人性问题，不是知识问题。

3️⃣ 当反对意见被压制时，反而要警惕共识

历史学家视角：几乎所有泡沫顶部，都有一个共同特征：“不同意见开始被道德化、情绪化地攻击。”

不是反驳你，而是说你“危险”“不负责任”“不合时宜”。

这在：1929、1970s、2000、2008、2021都出现过。

👉 当市场不允许怀疑时，价格通常已经脱离现实。

4️⃣ 看起来最安全的资产，反而最危险

超级富豪视角（这一条非常关键）：

美元和国债的“安全”，是：名义安全、波动安全、政策兜底安全

但在真实购买力层面：它们被设计成长期贬值

这对普通人是“稳定”，对真正关心长期财富的人，是慢性风险。

👉 “不跌”，不等于“不输”。

5️⃣ 市场比你聪明的概率，远高于你想象

金融老手的自我约束原则：

当你觉得：“市场明显定价错了。”

正确的第一反应不是加仓，而是：我哪里理解错了？、我忽略了什么信息？、是否有我看不到的约束？

真正成熟的投资者不是“反市场”，而是非常谨慎地反市场。

三、把这五条合在一起，你会发现一个共同内核

它们都在训练你一件事：不要被“看起来安全 / 合理 / 大家都认可”的东西麻痹。

而要持续问三个问题：

风险是否被低估？
共识是否已经过度？
我是否被“舒服感”欺骗？

四、一句非常“老钱”的总结

真正的投资，不是避免犯错，而是在别人都不敢承担风险时，承担“被误解的风险”。

这五条原则之所以值钱，不是因为它们能让你一年赚多少，而是因为它们能让你在几十年里不被清出牌桌。

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