首页人物观点美联储如预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.5%–3.75%。资产负债表将重新扩张，因为 SOMA（公开市场账户）组合将开始购买国库券，以“维持充足的准备金水平”。正如 @knowledge_vital 所指出的，这在技术上并不属于 QE——目标是流动性管理，而非刺激经济。在 12 位投票委员中，有 9 位支持降息，这点值得关注，因为此前市场担心投票会更加分裂。两位委员希望维持利率不变，而 Stephen Miran 主张降息 50 个基点。点阵图显示： * 明年预计降息一次 * 2027 年再降息一次而市场持续定价： * 2026 年降息两次 * 2027 年不降息计划中的资产负债表扩张显然点燃了投资者情绪 —— 市场正以风险偏好提升（risk-on）的方式作出反应。 Fed cut its target range by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75% as expected. The balance sheet is set to grow again as the SOMA portfolio will start buying Treasury bills “to maintain an ample level of reserves.” As @knowledge_vital notes, this is not technically QE – the goal is liquidity management, not economic stimulus. 9 of the 12 voting members supported the cut, which is notable given earlier concerns about a more divided vote. Two dissenters wanted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran argued for a 50bps cut. The dot plot points to one rate cut next year and another in 2027, while markets continue to price in two cuts in 2026 and no cut in 2027. The planned balance-sheet expansion has clearly energized investors — markets are responding with a risk-on mood.

美联储如预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.5%–3.75%。资产负债表将重新扩张，因为 SOMA（公开市场账户）组合将开始购买国库券，以“维持充足的准备金水平”。正如 @knowledge_vital 所指出的，这在技术上并不属于 QE——目标是流动性管理，而非刺激经济。在 12 位投票委员中，有 9 位支持降息，这点值得关注，因为此前市场担心投票会更加分裂。两位委员希望维持利率不变，而 Stephen Miran 主张降息 50 个基点。点阵图显示： * 明年预计降息一次 * 2027 年再降息一次而市场持续定价： * 2026 年降息两次 * 2027 年不降息计划中的资产负债表扩张显然点燃了投资者情绪 —— 市场正以风险偏好提升（risk-on）的方式作出反应。 Fed cut its target range by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75% as expected. The balance sheet is set to grow again as the SOMA portfolio will start buying Treasury bills “to maintain an ample level of reserves.” As @knowledge_vital notes, this is not technically QE – the goal is liquidity management, not economic stimulus. 9 of the 12 voting members supported the cut, which is notable given earlier concerns about a more divided vote. Two dissenters wanted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran argued for a 50bps cut. The dot plot points to one rate cut next year and another in 2027, while markets continue to price in two cuts in 2026 and no cut in 2027. The planned balance-sheet expansion has clearly energized investors — markets are responding with a risk-on mood.

Holger ZschaepitzSenior Economics & Finance Editor at Welt

2025/12/10 20:50 UTC

观点原文

美联储如预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.5%–3.75%。资产负债表将重新扩张，因为 SOMA（公开市场账户）组合将开始购买国库券，以“维持充足的准备金水平”。正如 @knowledge_vital 所指出的，这在技术上并不属于 QE——目标是流动性管理，而非刺激经济。

在 12 位投票委员中，有 9 位支持降息，这点值得关注，因为此前市场担心投票会更加分裂。

两位委员希望维持利率不变，而 Stephen Miran 主张降息 50 个基点。

点阵图显示：

明年预计降息一次
2027 年再降息一次

而市场持续定价：

2026 年降息两次
2027 年不降息

计划中的资产负债表扩张显然点燃了投资者情绪 —— 市场正以风险偏好提升（risk-on）的方式作出反应。

Fed cut its target range by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75% as expected. The balance sheet is set to grow again as the SOMA portfolio will start buying Treasury bills “to maintain an ample level of reserves.” As @knowledge_vital

notes, this is not technically QE – the goal is liquidity management, not economic stimulus. 9 of the 12 voting members supported the cut, which is notable given earlier concerns about a more divided vote. Two dissenters wanted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran argued for a 50bps cut.

The dot plot points to one rate cut next year and another in 2027, while markets continue to price in two cuts in 2026 and no cut in 2027.

The planned balance-sheet expansion has clearly energized investors — markets are responding with a risk-on mood.

FED

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