Kalshi 是史上增长最快的公司之一 —— 而且它甚至不是一家 AI 公司。 预测市场正在席卷全球，而 Kalshi 处在最核心的位置，是全球最大的预测市场平台。 Kalshi is one of the fastest growing companies ever - and they're not in AI Prediction markets have taken the world by storm, and Kalshi is at the front & center, the largest global platform
Luana Lopes LaraCo-Founder & CEO at Kalshi
观点原文
Kalshi 是史上增长最快的公司之一 —— 而且它甚至不是一家 AI 公司。
预测市场正在席卷全球，而 Kalshi 处在最核心的位置，是全球最大的预测市场平台。
Kalshi is one of the fastest growing companies ever - and they're not in AI
Prediction markets have taken the world by storm, and Kalshi is at the front & center, the largest global platform
Prediction Market
相关观点
- 每个人在某件事情上都是专家。 @TheGrandeTop10 的交易之旅令人鼓舞，也是促使我们每天都兴奋地来上班、持续建设 Kalshi 的众多故事之一。目标直指 $60,000 🫡 Everyone is an expert at something. @TheGrandeTop10 's trading journey is an inspiration and a great example of the many stories that make us excited to come to work everyday and build Kalshi. On to $60k 🫡Luana Lopes Lara · 2025/11/27
- 转 运营预测市场 Kalshi 的团队表示，在这个平台上，用户可以就各种事件下注——从选举、体育比赛，到泰勒·斯威夫特婚礼上谁会当伴娘——其用户每周的交易额已达到 10 亿美元。 但随着预测市场不断扩大，这一迅速增长的商业模式也开始受到部分州监管机构和州检察长的审查 The people behind the prediction market Kalshi, where people can place wagers on everything from elections and sports contests to the anticipated bridesmaids at Taylor Swift's wedding, say its users trade a billion dollars every week. But as prediction markets are expanding, this burgeoning business model is coming under the scrutiny of some state regulators and attorneys generalLuana Lopes Lara · 2025/11/27
- 转 我敢肯定，芝加哥那些高频交易（HFT）公司的社交媒体实习生团队，正专门写开源代码给你，用来在 Polymarket 上交易类似期权的产品，然后把你的交易数据汇报给他们的老板。 I’m convinced there is entire team of social media interns at the Chicago hft shops writing open source code for you to trade option like products on polymarket to feed you to their bossesShayne Coplan · 2026/02/16
- 预测市场 ≠ CME 的二元期权 许多传统金融（TradFi）老兵看到 CME 二元期权的成交量，就断言预测市场无法规模化。 这个推断是错误的。 二元期权处在一个尴尬的中间地带： 1️⃣ 它们需要很高的金融专业度——希腊值、波动率建模、风险中性定价——但收益却被封顶。 2️⃣ 具备这种能力的交易者，理性上会选择具有凸性收益的工具：股指期货、股票期权、结构性产品。 预测市场在这两点上完全相反： 1️⃣ 将技能门槛从金融工程降为信息优势。你不需要 gamma，你需要理解世界——政治、体育、天气、互联网文化、人类行为。 2️⃣ 如果你使用自动化执行系统，利润可以不设上限。 Prediction Markets != CME Binary Options TradFi veterans look at CME binary options volumes and conclude that prediction markets cannot scale. This inference is wrong. Binary options sit in an awkward middle ground: 1. They require deep financial sophistication -- greeks, vol modeling, risk-neutral pricing -- yet cap upside. 2. Traders capable of that complexity rationally choose instruments with convex payoffs: index futures, equity options, structured products. Prediction markets invert both: 1. Collapse the skill requirement from financial engineering to information advantage. You don’t need gamma. You need to understand the world. Politics. Sports. Weather. Internet culture. Human behavior. 2. Profits can be uncapped if you use automated execution systems.PJ @Prithvir12 · 2025/12/23