Days ago, the Pentagon instructed the U.S. Central Command to complete preparations to resume significant military operations against Iran. The directive did not specify a date for strikes. U.S. officials told Axios that President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision.

Sources from the U.S. and Israel say that operations could potentially occur before the U.S. midterm elections or possibly a week before Israel's elections. If resumed, large-scale bombings targeting Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear sites are expected. Axios reported that a resumption of hostilities in the next three to four weeks could impact the midterm elections, partly due to potential increases in oil prices. Pentagon officials stated that the Defense Department's role is to develop options and present them to the president.

White House officials said Trump has all options available at any time. The official stated that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's economy is collapsing, and Iran has been severely damaged, with events likely to take either an easy or difficult path. Earlier the same day, The Atlantic reported that Trump is weighing whether to strike Iran before the midterm elections, which are on November 3.

Last Friday, Trump's national security team held a several-hour meeting at Camp David, discussing topics including war. An Israeli official told Axios that part of the discussion was about potentially resuming significant operations against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated after the meeting that the focus was on long-term diplomatic planning. There has been no progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the Qatari mediators are still waiting for Iran's response to the U.S. counter-proposal, which includes nuclear concessions. Another Israeli official said the likelihood of action before the elections is low, but not ruled out. The probability significantly increases after the midterm elections.

Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, marking the second call in days, following a period of almost no communication. U.S. officials said the call was to commemorate and honor the victims of the October 7 attack. The call occurred after Netanyahu discussed Iran with his national security team. Netanyahu also spoke with Rubio on Monday. If significant operations resume, it is highly likely that the U.S. and Israel will coordinate, with Israeli forces participating. Two Israeli officials stated that the Iranian regime is desperate and suspicious, possibly prompting them to act first. They noted that Iran has already suffered two attacks and does not want a third.

The buyers are the White House and the Israeli government, pricing military options according to the electoral window, while the sellers are Iran, which still controls energy facilities and has not responded to the counter-proposal regarding nuclear concessions. This is a risk repricing driven by the preparation directive, not an announced date for war. Funds will first flow into oil risk premiums, then see if the Strait is still claimed to be controlled. The beneficiaries are the ruling parties that can bring tensions into the final stages of the election, while Iran's energy exports, approximately 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in the region, and the potential for hundreds of ballistic missiles to strike Israel's rear are under pressure.

Resuming or even just escalating tensions could make it difficult for opponents to attack Netanyahu in the final stages of the election. The probability before the elections is marked as low by Israeli officials, but significantly increases afterward.

Source: Public Information