Historical Behavior

Trump's historical behavior on immigration shows a "hardline + racialized" characteristic. In his first term in 2017, he introduced the "Muslim Ban," implemented a "zero tolerance" policy in 2018 (leading to family separations), and criticized Merkel's "disastrous" immigration policy in 2019. After his second term in 2025, the National Security Strategy in December 2025 defined immigration for the first time as a "threat to civilizational extinction," and in April 2026, he threatened that "Europe will disappear due to immigration issues." Compared to the Biden administration (2021-2024, accepting 4 million immigrants), Trump's policies (2025-2026, deporting 2 million illegal immigrants) are more extreme.

Capital Pathway

The capital impact of immigration policy is clear: Trump's government plans to spend $120 billion on immigration from 2025 to 2026, including $40 billion for the border wall, $30 billion for deportation actions, $20 billion for detention centers, and $30 billion for domestic law enforcement. Funds are shifting from "social welfare" (cutting $15 billion in immigrant benefits) to "border security," with private prison companies (like CoreCivic) projected to see a 120% revenue increase in 2026, and border construction companies (like Fisher Sand & Gravel) expected to rise by 80%. In Europe, immigration-related spending is projected to reach €80 billion in 2026 (Germany €30 billion, France €20 billion, Italy €15 billion), accounting for 0.5-1% of GDP, but support for far-right parties is rising (Germany's AfD at 25%, France's National Rally at 30%).

Analogy + Industry Position

Similar cases include the 2015 European refugee crisis, where Merkel accepted 1 million refugees, and the AfD's support rate rose from 5% in 2016 to 15%, reaching 25% in 2026. In 2016, Trump's "Muslim Ban" led to a 50% decrease in Muslim immigration to the U.S. in 2017, and in 2026, the deportation of 2 million illegal immigrants resulted in a 70% decrease in Latin American immigration. Currently, Europe and the U.S. are in a "polarization period of immigration policy"—the U.S. (Trump's deportations), Europe (rise of the far-right) vs. Canada (Trudeau accepting 500,000/year), and the UK (Labour Party relatively open). The industry position belongs to the "border security industry boom period"—the global border security market is expected to reach $50 billion in 2026 and $120 billion by 2030.

Structural Judgment

Essentially, this is a restructuring of population demographics caused by regulatory changes. Trump's "immigration threat theory" is fundamentally about "population politics"—defining immigration as a "civilizational extinction" rather than an "economic opportunity." This explains why the National Security Strategy uses "biological guardianship" language—it's not about "policy differences," but rather about "racial continuity." When immigration policy shifts from an "economic tool" (to fill labor gaps) to "identity politics" (to protect "Western civilization"), capital flows shift from "immigrant-benefiting industries" (construction, agriculture, services) to "border security industries" (prisons, surveillance, law enforcement). This has driven the "weaponization of immigration"—immigrants become tools for political attack rather than economic policy. The far-right in Europe (AfD, National Rally) leverage immigration issues for support, while the Republican Party in the U.S. mobilizes voters around immigration issues, forming a "transatlantic populist alliance."

ABAB News · Cognitive Laws

Immigration is both an economic tool and a political weapon
Border security is a populism printing press
Demographic changes determine civilizational narratives