Historical Behavior

Brian Armstrong's layout in the "AI + Crypto" field began in 2023 when Coinbase Ventures invested in AI crypto projects (such as Fetch.ai, Ocean Protocol). The Base chain (Layer 2) was launched in 2024, with Base's TVL surpassing $5 billion in 2025, and in 2026, collaborating with Google and Amazon to develop AI agent payment tracks. Compared to Raoul Pal (who proposed in 2026 that "AI agents will go on-chain") and Vitalik Buterin (who proposed in 2025 that "AI will be decentralized"), Armstrong's strategy is more "commercialization-first"—not pursuing technological breakthroughs but focusing on "payment scenario implementation".

Capital Path

Coinbase's capital allocation path is clear: $120 million revenue from the Base chain in 2025 (transaction fees + bridging fees), with a year-on-year increase of 180% to $340 million in Q2 2026. The AI agent payment track will go live in Q1 2026, processing $500 million in transaction volume in Q2, with a commission of 0.5% (resulting in $25 million in revenue). Funds are shifting from "crypto trading fees" (expected to be $1.5 billion in 2025, $1.2 billion in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 20%) to "AI payment fees" (expected to be $500 million in 2026, $2 billion in 2027). Armstrong's "AI agents using crypto" essentially means "using AI payments to replace traditional transaction fees"—as AI agents become new users of Coinbase, the decrease in transaction fees is offset by the increase in payment fees.

Analogy + Industry Position

Similar cases include PayPal's introduction of "machine payments" in the 2010s (eBay automatic renewals, subscription services), which accounted for 35% of PayPal's transaction volume by 2026. In the 2020s, Stripe introduced "API payments" (SaaS automatic deductions), which accounted for 60% of Stripe's transaction volume by 2026. Currently, AI agent payments are in the "early stage of PayPal"—expected to account for 1% of crypto payments by 2026 and 30% by 2030. The industry position is on the "eve of an explosion in AI payment infrastructure"—compared to traditional payments (Visa, Mastercard, settlement T+1) and crypto payments (stablecoins, settlement T+0), AI agents require "millisecond-level settlement + programmability", making smart contract networks the only viable solution.

Structural Judgment

This essentially belongs to a technological substitution leading to a reconstruction of the payment layer. Traditional payments are "human-to-human" or "human-to-business", while AI agent payments are "machine-to-machine". When the number of AI agents reaches over 10 billion (expected by 2030), the scale of "machine payments" will exceed that of "human payments". This explains why Armstrong emphasizes "AI agents using crypto"—not as a "technological preference", but as a "infrastructure grab". When AI agents become the payment entities, fiat payments (Visa, PayPal) will be marginalized due to slow settlement, high costs, and lack of programmability, while crypto payments (stablecoins + smart contracts) become the native settlement layer. This drives the "de-intermediation of payments"—traditional financial intermediaries (banks, card organizations) are replaced by smart contracts, reducing payment fees from 2-3% to 0.1-0.5%.

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