Raoul Pal has long focused on the intersection of macro and technology, previously articulating the "exponential age" through Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, believing that the simultaneous acceleration of AI, robotics, solar energy, and blockchain curves will create unprecedented productivity leaps. His career has experienced multiple cycles and emphasizes constraints from debt and demographic structures.

In terms of capital pathways, Pal aims to concentrate research resources on the long-term impact of productivity breakthroughs on currency and asset prices, motivated by identifying opportunities for real wealth growth in a deflationary environment, strategically guiding investors from a purely monetary easing narrative to a technology-driven abundance logic.

Similar cases can be seen in historical productivity waves brought by electricity and the internet, as well as the post-World War II productivity boom in the United States in the 1950s that halved the debt-to-GDP ratio, with the current phase being the early stage of multiple technology curves overlapping and entering steep segments.

Structural judgment belongs to technological substitution: AI pushes intelligent costs close to zero, with the mechanism being a significant increase in marginal output while lowering the prices of goods and services, allowing actual purchasing power to rise even amid nominal currency devaluation, thereby reconstructing the traditional trade-off between growth and inflation.

ABAB News · Law of Cognition

Productivity is the real money printer
In the wave of deflation, actual income determines perception
At the vertical curve, the old cycle fails