Arthur Hayes: 99% of Altcoins Going to Zero Does Not Mean the End of the Crypto Industry
Arthur Hayes stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that while 99% of altcoins may eventually go to zero, this phenomenon is highly similar to the historical turnover of S&P 500 constituents and does not signify the end of the industry.
He pointed out that approximately 98% of S&P 500 companies have been eliminated since 1929, and market clearing is a normal cyclical phenomenon. The altcoin ecosystem will continue to evolve and give rise to new long-term winners.
Source: Public Information
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Arthur Hayes has previously drawn parallels between traditional financial history and the crypto market, and this viewpoint continues his long-standing position of "brutal elimination theory." He emphasized during the 2022-2023 bear market that "99% of projects dying is inevitable," believing that Bitcoin and a few foundational projects will concentrate the capital and attention released after the elimination.
In terms of capital flow, the large-scale demise of altcoins will accelerate the concentration of funds towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and projects with real adoption. Hayes strategically encourages investors to avoid diversifying into low-quality projects and instead focus on core assets with strong network effects and high long-term survival probabilities.
Similar to how giants like Kodak and General Electric were eliminated during the century of the S&P 500, leading to the rise of tech giants, the crypto industry is currently in the mid-to-late stage of transitioning from the 2017-2021 bubble expansion to a mature cycle of survival of the fittest. High-quality projects will gain significant market share and valuation premiums after the clearing.
Essentially, this is about capital concentration: the market's brutal clearing will shift industry resources from numerous worthless projects to a few survivors, with the mechanism being that network effects and adoption barriers amplify the advantages of winners, accelerating capital concentration towards Bitcoin and a few foundational projects with lasting competitiveness.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
The more thoroughly 99% goes to zero, the more valuable the remaining 1% becomes; clearing has always been an accelerator of wealth redistribution. The S&P 500 has stood for a century after eliminating 98%, and the altcoin death wave is merely a normal evolution in the crypto version. The harsher the bubble bursts, the sooner real infrastructure gains pricing power; time always favors the projects that survive.