Jun Mizutani's investment behavior exhibits typical psychological biases of "loss aversion + disposition effect": locking in profits at 10%-20% but holding losses until 30%-40%, reflecting the core prediction of behavioral finance's "Prospect Theory"—the pain of loss is 2-2.5 times greater than the pleasure of gain.

A similar case can be compared to the 2021 Archegos collapse: Bill Hwang also faced forced liquidation of hundreds of billions of dollars due to "selling profits quickly and holding losses," with the difference being that Mizutani used personal funds while Hwang used leveraged funds, but the psychological mechanisms are the same.

On the capital path, Mizutani shifted from "long-term holding" to "high-leverage speculation," reflecting a typical reaction of retail investors after "long-term ineffectiveness": instead of optimizing stock selection or risk control, they increase their bets, attempting to use leverage to compensate for inadequate stock-picking ability, ultimately falling into a "loss → increase leverage → greater loss" death spiral.

Essentially, this represents a transfer of pricing power: retail investors devolve from "value discoverers" to "liquidity providers," with the underlying mechanisms being a combination of information asymmetry and psychological biases, leading to "buy high, sell low" becoming a systemic behavior rather than an individual mistake.

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