US President Donald Trump: The Stock Market Will Rise
US President Donald Trump stated that the stock market is unaffected and may even rise above current levels, claiming "the stock market will rise." This statement coincided with his remarks on a new round of strikes against Iran and claims of controlling the Strait of Hormuz during the same news cycle.
On that day, US stocks initially absorbed the previous day's sell-off, with the Dow rising, while the S&P and Nasdaq showed little change; the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond reached a high of about 4.81%, the highest since November 2023, and oil prices rose simultaneously. Market traders are pricing in the interest rate path, seasonal factors before the midterm elections, and the escalation in the Middle East. The outlook for interest rates from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh remains under discussion.
Trump has long viewed stock indices as a report card for his administration. On July 6, he rang the opening bell for both the NYSE and Nasdaq in the Oval Office for the first time, launching the "Trump Account" with $1,000 in seed funding from the Treasury for children born between 2025 and 2028, stating at the time that the market "would soar to the rooftops." The Dell Foundation and others have committed to funding this account system. He has repeatedly emphasized new highs in stock indices and falling oil prices during periods of controversy over peace agreements.
The president's verbal optimism does not constitute a policy tool, nor does it specify indices, timeframes, or conditions. When geopolitical conflicts raise energy and safe-haven interest rates, stock indices and his statements may temporarily diverge. Tariffs and fiscal paths are also being discounted.
Equating stock index fluctuations directly with the correctness of policy is part of his communication style; traders interpret the same statement as emotional embellishment, with actual orders still based on yields, oil prices, and corporate guidance.
In market mechanics, buyers view the president's bullish stance as a risk asset account for short-term sentiment, while sellers hedge expectations of Middle Eastern tensions and interest rate hikes with bonds and oil. The driving factors are military statements coinciding with market openings, making it event-driven. Funds are moving between stock index futures, energy, and US Treasuries. Beneficiaries are risk-seeking trades needing narrative support, while pressured parties include duration-sensitive assets and industries sensitive to import costs.
Source: Public Information
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Trump treats stock indices as a scorecard, maintaining a consistent message from his first term to the launch of the children's investment account: the market will rise and reach new heights. This time, embedding "unaffected and will go higher" within news of strikes against Iran serves as background music for military actions. Historical data shows that the stock market has indeed trended upward over the long term, but equating ten-year compound growth to today's closing compresses cycles into slogans. As bond yields reach a near three-year high, slogans and discount rates compete for the same attention.
The capital path is not new fiscal allocations but rather an oral pledge of public credit to risk assets. The Trump account effectively defaults newborn savings into the stock market, using Treasury seed funding and tax deferral to create structural buyers. Contributions from entities like Dell amplify the political brand. The motivation is to make stock indices a visible metric for re-election and midterm elections; the strategy is to preemptively define "the market is not crashing" during escalations in conflict. Actual funds still price according to oil prices and ten-year yields.
Analogous examples include Reagan framing the bull market as America's morning, Clinton using Nasdaq as a new economy poster, and past presidents emphasizing market "normalcy" during wartime. Trump's version is more frequent and personal. The phase transforms presidential communication itself into a volatility input: the same statement is noise in a calm market but a risk appetite test when missiles and oil prices are soaring.
This represents a transfer of pricing power. The shift is in who defines "normal" first. The mechanism is: the president controls the first screen of news, while traders control the closing price. The first screen can claim the market will rise, but the closing price only acknowledges cash flow and interest rates. When the two clash, the probability of slogans becoming contrarian indicators increases, but this does not prevent them from continuing to be used as emotional switches.