BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Ethereum May Fall Out of Top Three by 2030
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, publicly stated that by 2030, Ethereum may no longer rank among the top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, suggesting that crypto assets centered around AI narratives are likely to take its place.
This viewpoint is based on the current shift in market narratives: funds and attention are gradually moving away from general smart contract platforms towards token models related to AI computing, data, and computing power networks, aiming to capture the benefits of a new technological cycle.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
This judgment essentially discusses whether the dominant narrative in the crypto market is changing. Ethereum represents the core paradigm of the previous cycle—DeFi, NFTs, on-chain finance—while the AI narrative attempts to combine crypto with computing power, data markets, and the machine economy, vying for new value anchors.
However, the issue is that the integration of AI and blockchain currently lacks a stable value capture mechanism. Most so-called "AI tokens" have not truly embedded into core production processes and remain more in the narrative-driven stage. This suggests that while a market cap reshuffle may occur in the short term, whether a similar network effect to Ethereum can be formed in the long term remains uncertain.
Historically, the replacement of leading assets in the crypto market often occurs when both the "technological paradigm and liquidity cycle" switch simultaneously. For instance, from ICOs to DeFi, and then to NFTs, each round has been accompanied by new user behavior patterns. If AI cannot bring real on-chain demand, relying solely on narrative will struggle to replace assets of Ethereum's caliber.
On a deeper level, this viewpoint reflects a repricing of capital regarding "growth stories." Ethereum has gradually entered a stable phase similar to infrastructure, while the market tends to price directions with higher uncertainty but potentially higher growth. Whether it falls out of the top three depends not only on technological competition but also on which narrative the next liquidity cycle will revolve around.