Trump: Seriously Considering Major Military Action Against Iran
U.S. President Trump told Axios that he is seriously considering restarting major military operations in Iran, which could exceed previous actions. He stated that Iran wants to negotiate but is not yet ready to reach an agreement because they have not suffered enough pain. This statement is driven by geopolitical events, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets and energy-related targets, benefiting military and oil sectors while putting pressure on Middle Eastern risk assets. Source: Public information
ABAB AI Insight
During Trump's term, the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran was initiated, and he has previously sent alternating signals of military action and negotiations through Axios, setting phased goals and claiming to be close to an end, yet conflicts continue involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and proxy forces. The capital path reflects a strategy of maximizing pressure to gain negotiation advantages, aiming to force Iran to accept terms while retaining options for escalation, similar to the maximum pressure model after sanctions and the Soleimani operation during his first term. Compared to the U.S.-Iran tensions of 2019-2020 and the potential escalation of proxy conflicts post-2024, the current phase involves simultaneous military action and diplomatic windows, with Israel likely to intervene quickly. Essentially, this intertwines regulatory changes and shifts in pricing power, with the mechanism being that ongoing military strikes raise Iran's costs, compressing its negotiation leeway until an acceptable agreement is reached. ABAB News · Cognitive Laws 1. Pain is not enough; agreements will not come. 2. Military escalation is the greatest bargaining chip in negotiations. 3. The act of signaling itself is a tool of pressure.