Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, proposed the principle: without aggressiveness, you can't make money; without defense, you can't keep money. This statement is included in his long-public investment principles, separating the actions of making money and preserving money into two necessary components.

During his tenure at Bridgewater, he became known for risk parity and "all-weather" portfolios, requiring about 15 low-correlation bets to balance risk. In 2008, when the S&P 500 fell about 37%, his fund recorded approximately 9.5% positive returns. He has since stepped back from daily management, and Bridgewater's recent holdings in AI stocks like ServiceNow and Nutanix do not reflect his current personal judgments.

In a public interview in 2026, he stated that AI stocks show classic signs of a bubble, comparing valuations to those in 1929 and 2000: the Shiller CAPE is around 41, higher than the peak level in 1929 and close to the 44 peak in 2000. He estimates that the actual stock returns over the next 5 to 10 years will be approximately -5% to -10%, while warning that cash is almost the worst long-term holding due to inflation eroding purchasing power, and nominal interest still being taxable.

He suggests increasing gold allocation to about 10% to 15%, reducing bond weight, and retaining a small amount of Bitcoin; the core reasoning is based on the dollar's purchasing power and the debt cycle, rather than solely relying on a single narrative of safe-haven assets. He also emphasizes not to equate excitement about technological revolutions directly with the attractiveness of tech stocks, especially when the market is highly concentrated and correlations are elevated.

In market mechanics, buyers still treat concentrated bets on AI as offensive capital, while sellers are repricing allocations of gold, diversification, and cash opportunity costs. The events are driven by narratives of valuation and the debt cycle, with funds flowing from high-correlation growth stocks to hard assets and low-correlation portfolios; beneficiaries are those who can provide both offensive and defensive positions, while those under pressure are holders who only pursue offense without stop-loss measures or treat cash as a defense.

Source: Public Information