Jeremy Grantham Questions SpaceX's $2 Trillion Valuation
Billionaire Jeremy Grantham, known for his long-term warnings about asset bubbles, publicly questioned SpaceX's current valuation of approximately $2 trillion. He believes there are significant doubts regarding its AI business, Mars plans, and long-term growth logic, stating that there is a "90% bet" that SpaceX will ultimately face a historic collapse.
He finds it "incredible" that SpaceX's prospectus attributes about 90% of its addressable market to AI, arguing that its AI products cannot compete with those of OpenAI and Anthropic.
However, mainstream Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about SpaceX. With its formal inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 Index, it is expected to attract more passive capital inflows. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley have given positive ratings, believing that Starship, Starlink, and the AI business will be core drivers.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Jeremy Grantham is known for his long-term bearish stance on asset bubbles and has previously issued warnings during periods of high tech valuations. His questioning of SpaceX continues his cautious attitude towards valuations driven by AI narratives. As a core asset of Musk's portfolio, SpaceX's valuation significantly includes AI and Starlink, and Grantham's views highlight the tension between fundamental support and market narratives.
In terms of capital flow, Grantham is heavily betting on a collapse, with funds directed towards shorting or defensive positions, while Wall Street investment banks are optimistic about the growth prospects of Starship and Starlink, expecting continued inflows of passive index funds following its inclusion in the NASDAQ-100. Institutional positive ratings reflect confidence in the dual narrative of aerospace and AI.
Similar to Grantham's previous long-term skepticism towards high-valuation tech stocks like Tesla, Wall Street is tracking SpaceX's optimistic outlook post-IPO. The current intersection of aerospace and AI is in a phase of both valuation expansion and fundamental validation, making SpaceX a typical battleground of "narrative vs execution."
Essentially, this represents a shift in pricing power: after going public, SpaceX's pricing power shifts from the founder's narrative to collective judgment in the open market, with the mechanism amplifying the divergence in growth expectations for AI and aerospace. Defensive investors like Grantham bet on a bubble burst, while institutional funds continue to buy based on long-term technological implementation, causing valuations to fluctuate dramatically between narrative and reality.