Significant Increase in Long-term Unemployment in the U.S.
The number of long-term unemployed individuals (unemployed for 27 weeks or more) in the U.S. has averaged over 1.8 million this year.
According to an analysis by CNBC of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure has increased by about 45% compared to 2019 and by 55% compared to 2023, accounting for about one-quarter of the total unemployed population.
This trend reflects cautious hiring by employers and the effects of AI replacement, leading to an extended re-employment cycle for job seekers. Some capital is shifting towards automation investments rather than human expansion, putting greater pressure on the long-term unemployed in terms of skill depreciation and income.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
CNBC reports that long-term unemployment has accelerated over the past three years, directly related to the post-pandemic "low hiring, low layoffs" environment, as companies reduce their willingness to expand due to interest rates and uncertainty.
In terms of capital pathways, companies prioritize investment in AI and automation to control costs, while the welfare system provides a buffer for the unemployed, leading to a decline in labor market matching efficiency rather than a cyclical recovery.
Similar to the persistence of long-term unemployment after 2008, and current trends in other developed economies, the U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural transformation phase, with low-skilled jobs continuously replaced by technology and outsourcing.
Essentially, this is a case of technological replacement, where AI and a high-interest-rate environment accelerate the elimination of traditional jobs, prompting capital to concentrate in high-productivity areas while solidifying the marginalization of some workers, resulting in a structural mismatch in labor supply.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
When hiring is cautious, the duration of unemployment reveals more about real health than the unemployment rate. Technological replacement first eliminates jobs, then extends the re-employment path. In a low hiring, low layoffs environment, capital efficiency is achieved at the cost of human labor.