IEA Chief Warns Europe’s Aviation Fuel Supply May Last Only About Six Weeks
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, warned in an interview with the Associated Press that Europe’s aviation fuel supply may last only about six weeks, stating that the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz constitutes the "largest energy crisis in history." He pointed out that if the conflict in Iran continues to disrupt oil transport routes, the global shipping, aviation, and energy pricing systems will face systemic shocks.
Birol emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one-fifth of the world's crude oil transport daily, and if it is blocked, prices for oil, natural gas, and electricity will rise sharply. The most severely affected will be Asian economies that rely on energy imports from the Middle East, such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Bangladesh, with the ripple effects ultimately impacting supply chains and inflation structures in Europe and the U.S.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Birol's remarks are significant not for short-term oil prices, but for their historical context—the direct militarization of the energy system's "geopolitical vulnerabilities." The Hormuz crisis is shifting the global energy market from financial cycle issues to geopolitical cycle issues, indicating that supply stability has surpassed the adjustable range of price mechanisms. This will redefine the geopolitical security pricing of oil and compel countries to reassess their energy strategic reserves.
Structurally, the Strait of Hormuz has long been an "implicit anchor" of the dollar oil system: its security ensures the return of oil to the dollar-denominated cycle. When transport security is threatened, the financial derivative layers of the dollar pricing system will fluctuate in tandem, manifesting as resilient high inflation and repricing of risk assets. Disruption of energy flows is not just a supply issue, but a re-disturbance of global liquidity and payment order.
In the long term, such crises will drive regionalization and strategic diversification of energy supply—Europe will strengthen its liquefied natural gas and renewable energy reserves, while Asia will accelerate the signing of long-term spot complementary contracts. Historical patterns show that every militarization of energy routes triggers a shift in the "energy capital production center," and this shift may mark the beginning of the "post-Middle East cycle."