The Kobeissi Letter reports that the U.S. federal government's current daily net interest payments are approximately $3.8 billion, surpassing its daily Medicare and defense spending.

Data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicates that from October 2025 to June 2026, federal net interest payments will total $857 billion, averaging about $95.2 billion per month and approximately $3.1 billion per day; during this period, net interest will exceed defense and Medicare spending.

The $3.8 billion figure may be based on more recent fiscal data or annualized estimates, but the post does not specify the exact fiscal month, whether it uses net or total interest, whether it includes intra-governmental interest, or which official forecasting model is used. Therefore, this number cannot be directly compared to the CBO's cumulative figures for the previous nine months.

The total U.S. federal debt recently approached $40 trillion. Interest costs are determined by the size of outstanding tradable government bonds, refinancing rates of maturing debt, new deficit financing needs, and short-term interest rates; even if policy rates decline, the process of rolling over old debt to higher coupon rates may continue to drive interest payments up.

The Kobeissi Letter projects that by 2028, daily interest payments will reach about $5 billion, exceeding all other individual spending categories. This forecast depends on future deficits, government bond yields, inflation, economic growth, tax revenues, and fiscal policy, and should not be viewed as a definitive budget outcome.

From a market mechanism perspective, interest payments themselves are not discretionary cuts but a function of the debt size and market financing rates. An increase in government bond supply will require the private sector, banks, money market funds, foreign investors, and the Federal Reserve system to absorb more term risk; if buyers demand higher yields, the rising cost of fiscal financing will further widen the deficit, creating a "deficit-bonding-interest" feedback loop. Long-duration government bonds, interest-sensitive growth stocks, and highly leveraged companies are under pressure; money market funds, short-duration government bond holders, and some financial intermediaries benefit from higher risk-free rates.

Source: Public Information