Fidelity Digital Assets Head Cynthia Lo Bessette: Predictive Markets React to News Overnight
Fidelity Digital Assets Managing Director Cynthia Lo Bessette stated at TOKEN2049 that predictive markets react to news overnight, allowing fair prices to be identified when traditional markets reopen.
She did not disclose the price of any specific contract nor did she mention that Fidelity has placed orders using predictive markets. The argument revolves around time lag: stocks and some futures have closing times, but news does not stop with the market close. Predictive markets continue to trade during off-hours, pricing sudden news into probabilities and prices. The opening auction does not face a blank slate but rather quotes that have already been traded overnight.
In another event that same week, she described institutional tasks as requiring both traditional and digital asset infrastructures to operate at scale. Fidelity's offerings to clients include holding, using, and building. Holding corresponds to the cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds launching in early 2024, with Bitcoin fund size ranking second in the U.S. after BlackRock. Using refers to the Solana fund launching this fall, where investors can earn staking rewards from the protocol. Building pertains to self-built trading and settlement, which she claims can only be understood by seeing how the building blocks fit together.
The company's scale supports this statement. American Banker ranks Fidelity as the third-largest asset management company globally, managing $7.1 trillion. The crypto funds in her department are expected to contribute to a record year of 15% revenue growth to $37.7 billion in 2025. She joined Fidelity in August 2019, previously serving as Executive Vice President and General Counsel at OppenheimerFunds, overseeing asset management and digital asset legal affairs.
The predictive market side already has 24-hour trading. Contracts related to elections, macro data, and economic events can still be bought and sold after traditional exchanges close, with prices adjusting to news. Bessette defines this pricing as a reference before the market opens, not as a substitute for stock closing prices. TOKEN2049 is a crypto conference, with an audience of traders and issuers, not pension fund trustees.
This is a discussion on event-driven pricing power, not product issuance. Buyers are funds that still want to express views after market close, and market makers who need to reference overnight probabilities at the opening. Sellers are the liquidity and fees of predictive markets operating around the clock. The beneficiaries are places where trades can still occur overnight, while traditional order books that only see news during opening auctions are under pressure. Money does not need to be moved from stock accounts to predictive markets, but the first price of overnight news will form there first.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Cynthia Lo Bessette joined Fidelity in August 2019 from her position as General Counsel at OppenheimerFunds, first overseeing asset management and digital asset legal affairs, then digital asset management. The path involves compliance and product development: launching cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds in early 2024, with Bitcoin product size second only to BlackRock; followed by a Solana fund with staking rewards this fall. Her publicly stated sequence is holding, using, building, with self-built trading and settlement described as a way to see how the building blocks fit together.
Capital has not announced purchases in any predictive market. The $7.1 trillion in assets under management and $37.7 billion in annual revenue make this statement more like a research framework for opening pricing rather than a new business line. If Fidelity adopts this, it would use overnight probabilities to adjust opening prices for stocks and macro positions, rather than moving entrusted assets into event contracts. The predictive market platform gains a reference status, while fees remain on its own order book.
The analogy is the role of overnight futures in spot market openings. S&P futures continue trading after cash stocks close, with opening prices often looking to futures rather than yesterday's close. Chicago Mercantile Exchange index futures have been doing this for decades. Predictive markets extend the same mechanism from indices to elections, data, and corporate events, with thinner liquidity but addressing the issue of futures not being listed. The industry position is in an expansion phase: contract varieties are increasing, while institutions remain at the "used as reference" stage.
Structurally, this represents a transfer of pricing power. The closing price used to define fair value was left to the next trading day's auction. All-weather contracts bring that definition forward to the hour when news lands. The mechanism is that while traditional order books close, predictive markets do not, and the first trade rewrites the anchor before the opening. Whoever provides trades overnight gives the early session an undeniable number, even if formal trading is still at the exchange.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
- The order book stops at closing, not the news.
- The first trade overnight becomes the anchor for the morning session.
- Reference power precedes holding power; prices can be used without buying.