Jared Friedman Claims Truly Impactful Ideas Often Come from the Historical Trash Bin
Jared Friedman posted on platform X, pointing out that to find high-impact ideas, one should focus on old concepts that have been discarded in history.
The AI, SpaceX, Boom Supersonic, nuclear energy, and GLP-1 drugs that have emerged in the past five years are all cases of early rejection followed by rebirth. Hype failures often lead to awkward backlash, causing subsequent workers to be underestimated.
In market mechanisms, innovative entrepreneurs accelerate the exploration of undervalued historical technologies, with funds reversing allocation from mainstream hotspots to the "trash bin" areas. Founders who dare to cross the awkward period benefit, while those chasing trendy concepts face pressure.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Jared Friedman, as an investor, has long focused on technology cycles and has shared a reverse thinking framework on multiple occasions. He has observed the recurring historical patterns where "AGI" was mocked during OpenAI's early days and the consensus shift after SpaceX challenged NASA.
In terms of capital pathways, venture capital firms mobilize fund resources to support long-termist founders by selecting forgotten tracks by the mainstream, motivated by capturing exponential returns after technological maturity and societal mindset shifts. They continue to cultivate teams' ability to navigate the hype-backlash cycle to build lasting alpha.
Similar cases include the rebirth of electric vehicles after multiple failures before Tesla and surviving companies from the internet bubble dominating the following decade. The current tech industry is in a consensus reconstruction phase, transitioning from historical denial to re-evaluation across multiple fields.
Essentially, this reflects capital concentration: the social awkwardness and backlash mechanism temporarily expels talent and capital, shifting pricing power from short-term hype chasers to long-termists who adhere to historical old ideas, accelerating the restructuring of innovative resources towards areas with genuine structural breakthroughs.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
The trash bin is not the end, but a hidden entry point to the next trillion-dollar leverage.
Awkwardness is not a signal of failure, but the starting point of pricing power for a few after the masses exit.
The more thoroughly old ideas are denied, the more intense the capital concentration upon their rebirth.