Blake Scholl predicts that Tesla will use Full Self-Driving (FSD) as an internal advantage for two to three years before licensing it to other models, similar to how they opened up the Supercharger network in the past.

He is the founder of the supersonic passenger aircraft company Boom. Following his post, discussions immediately encountered existing facts: Elon Musk has repeatedly expressed a willingness to license and wrote in November 2025, "I reminded them and offered licensing, but they didn't want it"; traditional automakers occasionally reach out, but it is often for small projects five years down the line with terms Tesla cannot accept. Ford's public stance leans more towards Waymo. To date, there has been no public transaction for complete vehicle FSD licensing.

The difficulty in licensing lies in the implementation rather than the rhetoric. An end-to-end network trained on Tesla's camera perspectives and self-developed computing units would require the recipient to almost entirely change to a comparable sensor layout, computing hardware, and drive-by-wire chassis, and then adjust strategies for wheelbase, weight, and braking, resulting in a cycle close to a complete vehicle development. Sharing charging guns only requires changing interfaces and settlement; driving software alters the electronic and electrical architecture and liability. Xpeng has already marketed its intelligent driving and cockpit solutions and collaborated with Volkswagen, forming an alternative supplier path.

The opening of Supercharging occurred after the competition for charging standards in North America, with Tesla using network density to exchange for standard status and utilization. If FSD follows the same script, the premise is that competitors must approach to the point of "not accepting means losing sales," rather than the current stalemate of "wanting to accept but unable to meet the architecture."

Buyers view FSD as a future platform software that can generate revenue; sellers believe licensing equates to relinquishing architecture, data, and differentiation, which traditional automakers would not agree to. The event-driven prediction is a comparison of the charging network to intelligent driving. Benefiting from this is Tesla, which continues to keep data closed within its own fleet; under pressure are those who write licensing revenue into their valuations prematurely.

The market trades in control of architecture, not whether the old story of opening charging stations can be reused as is.

Source: Public Information