Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, stated during a fireside chat at Token2049 in Singapore that chasing the next 100x token has become a game of "irrational exuberance and hot potatoes." He believes that traders can recognize that a token has no value but still buy it due to the potential for a 100x increase, hoping to sell before it goes to zero.

He acknowledged that some people can accumulate wealth this way, but asset prices that rise will eventually fall. His exact words were: "People think they are buying something, but it actually has no value, yet they still buy; as long as it can reach 100x, they want to sell before it returns to zero. This shifts the focus from fundamentals to exit order."

Coplan noted that the growth of Polymarket's users indicates that some traders are looking for opportunities with more predictable odds, rather than the next hot token. He emphasized that the markets on the platform do not have exponential upside potential, yet traders with relevant information are still willing to participate, betting on event probabilities rather than token narratives.

According to DefiLlama, Polymarket's predicted trading volume over the past 7 days was approximately $1.21 billion, ranking second in the prediction market; Kalshi had about $2.3 billion during the same period, ranking first. The volume indicates that a migration has occurred, but pricing power still lies deeper with compliant sports and event contracts.

Risks have not disappeared with the narrative switch. A previous report from 10x Research pointed out that data-driven professional traders profit from information asymmetry and bid-ask spreads at the expense of retail investors chasing quick money. The prediction market caps the upside potential but does not cap the information gap.

Buyers are traders moving away from 100x tokens and into event contracts, while sellers are platforms providing hedging markets and professional counterparts. Funds are flowing from the secondary market of tokens to contracts priced from 0 to 1, with Polymarket and Kalshi extracting traffic based on transactions. Beneficiaries are traders with information advantages and platforms that obtain compliant licenses, while small-cap tokens that rely on narratives to maintain prices and states regulating sports contracts as gambling face pressure.

More than ten states in the U.S. have filed lawsuits against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both regarding sports event contracts. Federal swap determinations and state gambling licenses are in conflict, and an increase in trading volume does not equate to established access in all states.

Source: Public Information