Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent Crude May Exceed $120 in Q4
Goldman Sachs stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, Brent crude prices could rise above $120 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
This prediction is based on geopolitical supply risks, as tensions in the Middle East may drive up energy prices.
Energy producers and oil service companies benefit from high oil prices, while the aviation and transportation sectors face pressure; capital is accelerating towards oil futures, hedging, and alternative energy, with the global energy market shifting from supply-demand balance to geopolitical premium dominance, reinforcing demand for hedging against risks and inflation.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Goldman Sachs has previously issued oil price forecasts during periods of geopolitical conflict, accurately capturing supply risks at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and influencing institutional allocations through commodity research.
In terms of capital flow, traders and funds hedge risks through futures and derivatives, with strategic motives to profit from volatility while providing price-locking tools for end users.
Similar to the surge in oil prices following the 1970s oil crisis and the short-term impacts of recent Middle Eastern events on the energy market, the current energy market is in a high-volatility phase driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
Essentially, this reflects capital concentration: risks from strait disruptions increase risk premiums, as the critical position of global oil trade amplifies supply concerns, driving capital from spot consumption to futures speculation and long-term energy security investments, reshaping pricing power towards oil-producing countries and traders.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- Disruption of critical passages leads to a surge in oil price risk premiums.
- Geopolitical black swans are most sensitive to the energy market.
- In a high oil price cycle, capital concentrates on hedging and alternatives.