U.S. Net Tariff Revenue Turns Negative for the First Time, June Deficit Reaches $25.6 Billion

In June 2026, U.S. net tariff revenue turned negative for the first time, with a deficit of $25.6 billion, primarily due to the Supreme Court's ruling in February that country-specific tariffs were invalid, forcing the government to refund taxes to importers.

According to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the total expected refunds amount to $166 billion, equivalent to 75% of tariff revenue from April 2025 to February 2026. Monthly tariff revenue before June fluctuated between $27 billion and $31 billion.

Funds are flowing from tariff revenue to refunds for importers, putting pressure on federal fiscal revenue. The proportion of tariffs in total federal revenue rose from 2% to 4%, but the negative net revenue reflects the fiscal unsustainability of the "tariff war."

U.S. tariff revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $195 billion, and it is expected to drop to $30 billion in 2026 (after refunds), with the fiscal deficit rising from 5.4% of GDP to 6.9%.