Trump Claims Iran Issue Agreement Nearly Reached
Trump stated on social media that he had discussions in the Oval Office with leaders from multiple countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain regarding the Iran issue and a peace memorandum.
He claimed that the agreement has been largely negotiated and is pending finalization by the U.S., Iran, and other relevant countries. He also mentioned that his conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu went smoothly, with final details to be announced soon.
The agreement includes the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, benefiting energy traders and oil-importing countries from the restoration of shipping routes, while easing pressure on geopolitically sensitive assets, shifting funds from safe-haven gold to risk assets and the energy sector.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Trump has previously pushed for the Abraham Accords during his first term, and this direct communication with multiple leaders continues his approach of facilitating agreements through bilateral and multilateral pressure, similar to his personal diplomatic style during the normalization process between Israel and Arab countries in 2020.
On the capital front, the Trump administration is leveraging high-level calls to mobilize diplomatic resources to expedite the agreement, motivated by the desire to reduce tensions in the Middle East to stabilize global energy supplies, strategically opening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping security, providing lower-risk channels for U.S. ally oil companies and global trade, while alleviating domestic energy price pressures.
Similar to past market reactions following negotiations of the Iran nuclear deal, the current Middle East is in the early control phase of transitioning from escalating conflict to a multilateral memorandum of understanding, with coordination between Israel and Gulf states being a key variable.
Essentially, this is about restructuring supply chains. The advancement of the agreement alters the pricing power structure of global oil transport routes, with the mechanism being that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz reduces transportation risk premiums, prompting capital to concentrate from geopolitical safe-haven allocations to energy production and trade chains, thus reshaping the stability of the Middle Eastern oil supply chain.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
The benefits of war eventually run out; peace agreements are the long-term capital switch.
Once the strait opens, risk premiums drop, and funds immediately shift to physical assets.
The more frequent the diplomatic talks, the more the market fluctuates in a fear-driven greed.