Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer: Bitcoin Power Law Points to $300,000 by 2029
Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin power law model indicates a new cyclical bull market is unfolding after the price holds at $60,000, with a target of approximately $300,000 by 2029 according to the model.
He referred to $60,000 as the "sand line." The historical peak of about $126,200 occurred in 2025, with recent lows around $57,700 to $60,000, and the current price is still about 30% lower than the previous high. The chart also tracks the 52-week Z-score relative to gold, which has turned positive, a signal he sees as indicative of past cycle bottoms. The resistance zone is marked around $82,000 to $86,000.
The power law model fits price to time or network adoption as a power function, outlining upper, middle, and lower tracks with a logarithmic linear trajectory. The lower track has closely aligned with major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This framework is a historical extrapolation, not a deterministic prediction. Data sources include Fidelity, Bloomberg, and Haver's weekly series.
In market mechanisms, buyers view holding the power law lower track as a confirmation of a new cycle, while sellers are still trading based on the 2025 high point. The event-driven aspect comes from traditional asset management macro heads recalibrating the statistical curve as a bull market switch. Beneficiaries are those incorporating long-term targets into their portfolio narratives, while those under pressure are waiting for lower re-entry, viewing $60,000 as a continuation rather than a bottom. Funds are shifting from "will it break the curve" to "the next time coordinate on the curve."
Public statements did not guarantee $300,000, only noting it as a trajectory reading under the premise of holding the lower track.
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Timmer has used the same logarithmic curve for Bitcoin on traditional macro desks for over a decade, with the lower track closely aligning with cyclical lows around $16,000 and $58,000, leading him to upgrade "holding $60,000" from a technical level to a cyclical switch. The $300,000 target corresponds to a curve reading about three years out, not a fundamental discount. The positive Z-score relative to gold indicates a shift of Bitcoin from a lagging status as a safe-haven alternative back to a leading status, addressing a relative price that macro truly cares about.
The capital path is driven by asset management macro heads posting to provide a mathematical language for funds that have already entered portfolios through ETFs to continue holding. Once the curve is treated as an official timetable, chips below $60,000 will be reclassified as erroneous sell-offs, and breakthroughs above $82,000 will be marked as the end of accumulation. Fidelity simultaneously sells traditional macro and digital asset channels, allowing both product lines to converse using the same set of coordinates.
Benchmarks include stock risk premium models, housing prices relative to median income, and any assets treating historical power functions as policy. The three alignments with the lower track from 2015 to 2022 are a short sample, making the sensitivity to extrapolating to 2029 high. The industry overlays the four-year halving calendar with the power law timeline on the same chart, with the first to fail yielding to the other.
Structural changes represent a transfer of pricing power. Pricing is ceded from halving narratives and on-chain indicators to statistical extrapolations from asset management macro. The mechanism is that once the lower track is held, the model shifts from describing history to dictating cycles; the Z-score provides cross-asset comparisons, allowing Bitcoin to re-enter the macro grid of gold and liquidity. The effectiveness of extrapolation hinges on the curve remaining unbent; if regulation or liquidity structures rewrite the network expansion speed, the same power will systematically skew high or low.