Trump's Economic Approval Rating Hits Historic Low
Trump's net approval rating in The Economist's tracking poll has dropped to -24, the lowest since the tracking began in 2016.
The main drag comes from inflation (approval rating -43) and rising oil prices, which are widely seen as related to the war in Iran.
Market mechanisms show that investors are accelerating the reduction of asset allocations related to Trump's policies; event-driven funds are flowing out of high policy risk sectors and into defensive and non-U.S. assets; defensive stocks, gold, and stable energy alternative suppliers are benefiting, while Trump-related stocks and assets exposed to high oil prices are under pressure.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Trump previously enjoyed a long-term advantage in polls due to energy independence policies, but this decline is mainly due to the Iran conflict driving up oil prices and exacerbating inflation perceptions. Similar to the significant drag on his approval ratings during the global energy crisis in 2022.
In terms of capital flow, the market is repricing policy certainty based on polling signals, shifting funds from assets vulnerable to geopolitical and inflation fluctuations to safe-haven and defensive allocations, while also reducing optimism regarding strong stimulus expectations for Trump's second term.
This mirrors the fluctuations in approval ratings during the late stages of Trump's first term due to inflation pressures, as well as the direct impact of the Iran situation on global energy prices from 2024 to 2026; the current U.S. political economy is undergoing a transformation phase where geopolitical conflicts strongly influence domestic public opinion and asset pricing.
Essentially, this is a concentration of capital, as the decline in polling shifts market attention and funds from Trump's strong policy narrative to risk aversion, with the mechanism being that inflation and oil prices serve as highly sensitive indicators of public livelihood, directly amplifying voter dissatisfaction and quickly transmitting to the risk premium of related assets.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Oil prices and inflation are never abstract numbers, but real votes that can directly penetrate approval ratings. The longer external wars last, the faster domestic leaders' economic approval ratings drop. When livelihood pain points dominate polls, capital has already preemptively paid for uncertainty.