Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that under the "AI Safety First" policy framework, the U.S. government may intervene to support credit risks related to AI infrastructure through one of two paths in the future.

The first path involves the government directly taking on the "buyer" role currently played by institutions like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX in the computing power market—meaning that when these companies can no longer procure computing resources at their current scale, government departments would step in to fulfill procurement needs, preventing a sudden shrinkage in demand in the computing power market.

The second path is for the Federal Reserve to print money to provide assistance to insurance institutions holding AI-related debts. Hayes pointed out that the trigger condition for this scenario is a decline in computing power demand, leading to defaults on related debts when the original buyers are absent. At that point, insurance companies, as significant holders of AI infrastructure debt, would face pressure on their asset side, necessitating the Fed to expand its balance sheet to cover the losses.

Hayes believes that regardless of which path is ultimately taken, both are essentially the same thing—supporting the construction of AI infrastructure and the resulting credit expansion through monetary issuance, with the only difference being whether the government intervenes directly as a "buyer" or indirectly as a "central bank."

The underlying market logic of this judgment is that capital expenditure for AI infrastructure currently relies mainly on corporate bond issuance and capital expenditures from major cloud computing companies. Once the growth rate of computing power demand slows and buyer power weakens, insurance companies and bond investors holding related debts will be the first to feel the pressure; if the Fed intervenes with money printing assistance, it would imply a rise in expectations for liquidity easing, potentially benefiting risk assets (including crypto assets) due to expectations of monetary expansion, while traditional creditors would face relatively less pressure.

Source: Public Information