Kalshi CEO Predicts Computing Power Will Become the Largest Commodity
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour believes that computing power will become the largest commodity globally, giving rise to a massive derivatives market.
The company currently spends about $1 trillion annually on computing power, which could grow tenfold by 2030; as price volatility increases, businesses will ramp up their hedging needs. Historical data shows that the size of the derivatives market is typically 10-15 times that of the underlying market.
Computing power producers and large tech buyers will benefit from hedging tools, while traditional energy and financial derivatives platforms will face pressure; capital is accelerating into computing power futures and options, with the market shifting from spot purchases to financialization of risk management driven by events.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Kalshi previously focused on election and event contracts, pushing the prediction market from the fringe to the mainstream. Tarek Mansour's team has repeatedly expanded high-volatility commodity derivatives, similar to the early development path of the crude oil futures market.
In terms of capital pathways, Kalshi collaborates with computing power suppliers and cloud giants to develop contracts, leveraging exchange licenses and liquidity resources. The strategic motive is to seize the wave of AI-driven commoditization of computing power and capture a new trillion-dollar market share.
Similar to the evolution of crude oil from a strategic resource to the largest futures commodity globally, and the rapid scaling of Bitcoin futures, the computing power market is in the early stages of transitioning from internal corporate costs to publicly traded commodities.
Essentially, this is a concentration of capital: the supply of computing power is highly concentrated among a few cloud and chip giants. Through the derivatives market, capital will further strengthen pricing power and risk transfer mechanisms, driving the industry from a buyer's market to standardized financial products.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- The largest commodity will inevitably lead to the largest hedging market.
- The greater the volatility, the deeper the financialization.
- Once corporate costs are commoditized, a 10-fold leverage will follow.