About One-Third of Men Over 20 in the U.S. Are Neither Employed Nor Seeking Work
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the labor force participation rate for this group is currently 66%, a significant decline from 73% in 2006.
This trend has intensified competition among employers for specific skill positions, while some capital has shifted towards automation and immigrant labor supplementation. The low participation rate group faces greater economic pressure, while high-skilled employers and the tech industry benefit from labor shortage premiums.
Source: Public Information
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Jason Riley and other commentators point out that this decline continues a long-term trajectory spanning decades, directly related to the reduction in manufacturing employment share, with U.S. men, particularly those without a bachelor's degree, exiting the labor force at a significantly higher rate.
On the capital front, companies are turning to overseas production and automation investments to cope with the decreasing supply of local male labor, while government welfare and disability insurance systems provide alternative resources for those exiting, strategically reinforcing structural detachment rather than cyclical unemployment.
This is similar to the decline in labor force participation rates among Black men in the late 20th century, as well as current trends among low-skilled men in other developed countries. The U.S. economy is in a phase of accelerated technological substitution, with traditional manual and mid-skill jobs being replaced by machines and outsourcing.
Essentially, this is a case of technological substitution; globalization and automation have reduced the demand for local low-skilled men, prompting companies to restructure their workforce, while welfare mechanisms further entrench exit behaviors, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of labor supply contraction.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Technological advancement first replaces jobs, then reshapes participation willingness.
Welfare buffers short-term pain but locks in long-term structural exit.
In times of labor shortage, capital will always find substitutes rather than wait for a return.