US Average Gasoline Prices Rise Above $4.50 per Gallon
The national average gasoline price in the US has risen above $4.50 per gallon, marking the first time it has surpassed this level since 2022.
This increase is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the approaching summer driving season, leading to a rapid rise in oil prices over the past few weeks.
Prices in West Coast regions like California are nearing or exceeding $6 per gallon, with all 50 states experiencing varying degrees of price increases.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The rise in US gasoline prices follows a prolonged decline since the summer peak of 2022, with the current rebound primarily driven by concerns over crude oil supply due to the 2026 US-Iran conflict. Previously, WTI crude had already risen to high levels due to Strait risks, and refinery utilization rates and inventory levels have not fully offset the seasonal demand increase.
On the capital side, energy producers and traders are locking in high oil price profits through the futures market, while refining companies are expanding their crack spread earnings; on the consumer side, the additional fuel costs are being passed on to logistics, aviation, and retail prices, prompting the Federal Reserve to reassess the pace of interest rate cuts in light of inflation pressures.
Similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict that pushed oil prices into the $5 range, and the oil price spikes during the Middle East tensions of 2018-2019, the US is currently in a typical cyclical phase where geopolitical events are driving energy prices from low levels towards summer peaks.
Essentially, this reflects a restructuring of the supply chain: Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, through the critical node of the Strait of Hormuz, are transforming global capital from stable energy supply to a high-risk premium pricing model, mechanically amplifying oil price volatility through supply chain vulnerabilities, and forcing the US to shift from releasing strategic reserves to increasing domestic production and accelerating the deployment of alternative energy.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Geopolitical conflicts are always the most effective catalysts for oil prices; when a chokepoint is blocked, the global supply chain pays the price.
$4.50 is not the endpoint, but rather the starting point driven by the summer driving season and geopolitical uncertainties.
Consumers ultimately pay a premium for geopolitical risks, while those who lock in capacity and futures positions early are the real beneficiaries.