Musk: SpaceX Was Asked to Calculate the Probability of Rockets Hitting Sharks
Elon Musk previously revealed that SpaceX was required by government agencies to assess the probability of rockets hitting sharks in order to obtain launch permits for Starship.
Musk requested data on shark distribution for the calculation, but the agency refused due to concerns about data leaking to shark fin hunters.
They stated that another internal group could conduct the analysis but expressed distrust towards that group, despite being part of the same agency.
Eventually, data was obtained and the analysis was completed, showing no threat to sharks, after which they were asked to evaluate the impact on whales.
These requirements stem from the environmental impact assessment processes of the FAA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, among others.
In market mechanisms, discussions on the efficiency of event-driven space regulation are heating up: funding and time costs are directed towards compliance and environmental assessments, putting pressure on commercial space companies, and enhancing expectations for policies to simplify the permitting process.
Supplementary information shows that official documents indeed contain quantitative analyses of the collision probabilities for marine species.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
U.S. commercial space licensing involves multiple environmental and species protection law cross-reviews, reflecting high coordination costs among federal agencies.
On the capital side, resources are forced into modeling low-probability extreme scenarios, motivated by statutory requirements such as the Endangered Species Act, while exposing barriers to data sharing and internal trust issues.
Similar cases can be seen in delays of NEPA and ESA reviews in other space and energy projects; currently, there is a phase of intensified conflict between the scaling of commercial space and traditional regulatory frameworks.
Structural judgments belong to regulatory changes: parallel approvals by multiple agencies amplify compliance friction, with mechanisms in data barriers and risk aversion leading to self-extended processes, rather than single technical obstacles.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
- Low-probability scenarios incur high compliance costs
- Lack of data sharing is the root of internal agency conflicts
- Fragmented regulation hampers the speed of technological innovation