Dozens of gas stations in France have reported shortages of certain fuel types, a situation directly related to the attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west crude oil pipeline and the ongoing pressure on global crude oil and diesel supplies.

On September 10, Saudi Arabia's "east-west crude oil pipeline," designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, was attacked, damaging three pumping stations and disrupting the supply of approximately 4 to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day from the global market, accounting for about 4% to 5% of global crude oil supply; the pipeline's total designed capacity is about 7 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco has stated that it plans to restore about half of its transport capacity within a few days by bypassing the damaged section, but full repairs are expected to take 5 to 6 weeks.

Following the news, Brent crude futures surged to around $108 per barrel, with spot Brent crude prices even exceeding $130, described by commodity strategists as a signal of "serious tension in the physical market." As a result, the diesel market supply has become particularly tight, with domestic diesel prices in the U.S. exceeding $200 per barrel, setting a historical high, even though the U.S. is a major exporter of distillate fuels; gasoline prices also rose against seasonal trends during the traditional off-peak period.

In response to the new round of diesel price pressures, several European governments have urgently implemented measures: French President Macron has ordered a "full mobilization" to address fuel price issues, linking energy security directly to Middle Eastern diplomatic issues, emphasizing the need to promote the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; Italian Prime Minister Meloni has canceled the stamp duty on small and medium-sized vehicles; Spain has doubled the diesel tax reduction to 20 euro cents per liter since September 1 (previously, Spain's oil prices had already risen by 15.7% in July); German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Berlin will "quickly" introduce relief measures, with local gasoline and diesel prices reaching €2.45 per liter. France's inflation rate rose to 2.7% in August, driven mainly by energy prices; Italy's inflation also accelerated to 3.3% in August, similarly driven by rising energy prices.

A spokesperson for the European Commission previously stated that "there is currently no supply shortage in the EU," but acknowledged that as energy demand rises in the autumn and winter, market supply may tighten further. Before this crisis erupted, in April of this year, about 27.8% of the approximately 9,700 gas stations in France experienced fuel shortages, with gasoline shortages accounting for about 1.2% and diesel shortages about 0.8%; Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of French energy giant TotalEnergies, had warned at that time that if the Strait of Hormuz were to remain blocked for another 2 to 3 months, France could enter an "energy shortage era," as the company had already lost about 15% of its Middle Eastern production and the previously buffered inventory had been nearly exhausted. Macron responded at that time by stating that "the situation remains under control" and emphasized that "panic itself is the cause of shortages."

From the market transmission mechanism perspective, the attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, which was a key backup route designed to mitigate risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, means that the redundancy in the crude oil supply system originally intended to hedge geopolitical risks is being directly breached. The impact of this "failure of the backup route itself" on market sentiment is often greater than mere price fluctuations, directly driving crude oil and diesel futures prices to jump; cost pressures are transmitted layer by layer from refining, wholesale to retail, ultimately manifesting as temporary supply shortages of certain fuel types at gas stations. In the short term, traders and energy producers holding long positions in crude oil and refined oil futures, betting on an expansion of geopolitical risk premiums, are the direct beneficiaries, while logistics companies, agricultural producers, and ordinary consumers relying on diesel transportation continue to face pressure; the tax reductions and price intervention measures rolled out by various governments are essentially using fiscal resources to partially offset the cost pressures transmitted to end consumers, but do not provide substantial relief to the actual global supply gap.

Source: Public Information