Iran War Enters Approximately 100 Days, Stalemate Persists After US-Israel Joint Actions
Since the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" by the US and Israel on February 28, 2026, targeting Iran's leadership and military facilities, the conflict has approached 100 days.
Initial actions resulted in damage to targets such as Iran's Supreme Leader, followed by retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; despite a nominal ceasefire, sporadic clashes and tensions continue.
In market mechanisms, global energy buyers and traders are increasing insurance and alternative route costs due to heightened risks of supply disruptions, pushing capital away from conventional Middle Eastern crude oil towards other sources or inventories; driven by events, capital is shifting from high-risk areas to safe-haven assets, benefiting non-Middle Eastern energy-producing countries and defense contractors, while putting pressure on import-dependent economies and shipping companies reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The US and Israel previously conducted limited strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military targets during the 2025 "Twelve-Day War," accumulating intelligence and combat experience, and have repeatedly weakened Iran's regional influence through proxy conflicts and precision actions. The 2026 operation represents a more direct targeting of leadership and infrastructure.
In terms of capital flow, military spending and reconstruction resources are concentrating on US-Israeli military industries and allied energy buffers, aiming to weaken Iran's export capacity and reshape regional supply chains through strikes, motivated by the long-term goal of containing nuclear threats and ensuring the security of global energy corridors.
Similar to the post-Gulf War regional power restructuring, the current Iran conflict is transitioning from high-intensity strikes to a prolonged stalemate and diplomatic maneuvering, with the US and Israel attempting to pressure Iran into concessions.
Essentially, this involves regulatory changes and industrial chain restructuring, as the conflict forces adjustments in global energy trade routes and security agreements, accelerating the concentration of capital towards diversified supply and domestic defense infrastructure, weakening reliance on single channels and reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitical pricing power.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Short-term strikes may seem like quick victories, but in reality, prolonged stalemates amplify supply chain vulnerabilities; diversification is the long-term moat. Selling control over energy corridors incurs costs, while selling safe-haven and alternative solutions garners premiums; the top sellers are those reconstructing the global trade structure. Conflicts do not eliminate dependencies; they merely accelerate dispersion; the victors reshape the long-term pricing power of buyers and sellers through pressure.