Prices of Various Soft Commodities in the U.S. Have Significantly Increased This Year
The Spectator Index shows that since the beginning of the year, prices of various soft commodities have risen, with rice increasing by 45%. Cotton is up 27%, wheat 25%, wool 21%, rubber 20%, cheese 16%, and tea, sunflower oil, and palm oil each up 15%. Lumber has risen 14%, and soybeans 13%. In the commodities market, rising energy and fertilizer costs, combined with weather risks, are driving up agricultural product prices; countries reliant on imports and food processing companies are facing cost pressures, while producers and exporting countries benefit, leading to capital flowing into agricultural futures and related hedging tools. Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The fluctuations in commodity prices in 2026 are primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East raising energy and fertilizer costs, with rice leading the increase due to high fertilizer dependence and supply concerns in major Asian producing regions, continuing the trend of agricultural input-sensitive products being repeatedly impacted since 2022. In terms of capital flow, traders and funds are increasing long positions in grains, oils, and soft commodities, while importing countries are boosting strategic reserves and forward purchases; resources are shifting from the consumption side to production and logistics to hedge against imported inflation. This is comparable to the food price surges in 2008 and 2022, which were similarly triggered by energy shocks and weather factors. We are currently in the mid-stage of "cost-push" inflation for agricultural products. The structural judgment indicates a transfer of pricing power: when the supply of key inputs (fertilizers, energy) is disrupted, agricultural product pricing shifts from demand-driven to supply and cost-driven, with exporting countries and upstream resource holders regaining bargaining power. ABAB News · Law of Cognition 1. Fertilizer price increases hit staple foods first 2. The longer the supply chain, the more pronounced the impact 3. Weather and geopolitics are always the ultimate price determinants for agricultural products.