Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates: The World Focuses on Whether the U.S. Can Take Control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran
Ray Dalio stated that the whole world is watching the outcome of the U.S. in the current conflict.
The core question is: Can the U.S. take control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, remove nuclear materials, and eliminate its lethal missile and drone capabilities?
He emphasized that if the U.S. fails to achieve these goals, it will open a certain path; if successful, it will lead to a completely different global landscape.
Dalio recommends reading his article "It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The 'Final Battle.'"
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Ray Dalio has previously published analyses on geopolitical "big cycles," and this focus on the Strait of Hormuz continues his long-standing emphasis on how control of key passages determines historical trajectories. He has likened such energy chokepoints to critical variables in the rise and fall of empires throughout history.
In terms of capital strategy, Bridgewater Associates is shifting resources from high-risk Middle Eastern exposed assets to gold, commodities, and defensive allocations, with more funds flowing into geopolitical hedging tools. The motivation is to protect portfolios before the outcome of control becomes clear, while providing LPs with historical perspectives to guide long-term asset reallocation.
Similar to his systematic warnings regarding U.S.-China relations and debt cycles, the global macro environment is currently transitioning from localized military conflicts to a phase where control over key energy passages determines major cycles.
Essentially, this is a regulatory change: the struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz will significantly shift pricing power from Iran to the dominant party, as control of the shipping lanes directly reshapes the global oil supply curve and risk premiums, forcing capital to accelerate its movement from threatened assets to safe, diversified assets, thus forming a new long-term allocation pattern.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
What truly determines the course of history is never the victories or defeats on the battlefield, but who secures that narrowest strait. Controlling energy chokepoints equates to controlling the risk switch of global capital. The outcome of great power competition is often written by who holds the "lifeblood of liquidity."