JPMorgan Global Markets Head Andrew Tyler: US Stock Market Expected to Have Upside in the Short Term
JPMorgan's trading desk has recently shifted to a "tactically bullish" stance, expecting the US stock market to have upside in the short term. In their latest client memo, the team stated that despite the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, the market has digested the events and displayed characteristics of "mispricing," particularly in the technology and cyclical sectors. The trading desk believes that the decline in the risk premium from the Hormuz supply chain, corporate earnings resilience, and "oversold" positions together constitute a triple driver for a rebound, with expectations that the S&P 500 may break the 7000-point mark.
In terms of allocation recommendations, JPMorgan's trading team prioritizes small-cap stocks, technology stocks, and cyclical stocks at the sector level, while noting that many retail and institutional investors have accumulated extreme short positions in recent weeks. Once risk appetite recovers, this may trigger a "reverse crowding" and a technical rally. This optimistic signal represents another structural endorsement of US stock market value in a high interest rate environment, rather than merely hedging against short-term volatility.
Source: Public Information
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JPMorgan交易台看涨的本质，是“宏观风险溢价压缩”与“仓位结构重置”共同释放的做多动能。在伊朗问题未爆发全面战争、供应链扰动边际缓解的背景下，较高风险资产的估值中枢被政策预期与流动性前景抬升。这说明，当前市场定价并非单纯基于基本面，而是叠加了军事风险的“去风险化”阶段，一旦紧张情绪缓和，风险资产往往第一时间被重估。
从结构层面看，这轮“战术性看涨”反映了机构资本与零售资本的再对齐过程。在科技股与“伟大七巨头”（Mag 7）经历大幅回调后，估值被部分消化，而机构此前的净空头配置又为反转创造了条件。当大行交易台集体释放看涨信号，既是对市场流动性的确认，也是对系统性杠杆方向的引导，使指数波动从“去风险交易”转向“再风险化交易”。
长期而言，这轮表态预示美股将在“高增长、高波动、高政策敏感”的框架下延续上行。技术与AI资本开支仍在扩张，股市估值压力被转移到杠杆与波动率管理，而不是基本面本身。JPMorgan的乐观不是对政策的放任，而是对市场已经形成的“AI超级周期”结构的再定价：资本结构正在要求权益市场持续承担风险，而不是退出风险。