Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski: Ukraine has destroyed 30% to 40% of Russia's refining capacity
Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski revealed in his personal interview program "Front Sikorskiego" that Ukraine has destroyed 30% to 40% of Russia's refining capacity, leading to logistical issues for both civilian and military operations in Russia. He also publicly warned Moscow, "Be aware, we have more fighter jets than you."
Sikorski emphasized that Ukraine has almost no usable air force and lacks the capability to operate over Russian airspace, yet has managed to inflict such significant losses on refining capacity using only drones and long-range strikes. This statement aims to highlight the potential impact if NATO member air forces were to truly intervene.
In the same week (September 14), at a security conference in Kyiv, Sikorski further stated: "If Ukrainians have taken out half of Russia's refining capacity in six months, we can take out the remaining half in six weeks," claiming that NATO has an "overwhelming advantage" in aerial power against Russia.
Independent data supports the scale of destruction—according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of early July, sustained drone strikes have paralyzed approximately 42.7% of Russia's total refining capacity, destroying or damaging over 60 oil storage facilities, resulting in an estimated industry loss of about $13.5 billion since August 2025, with eight refineries attacked in the past month.
The loss of capacity has significantly impacted the livelihoods and logistics within Russia: fuel production in June fell by 25% year-on-year, about 20% below domestic demand, leading to fuel crises in over 50 regions, with police and national guards deployed in Irkutsk Oblast to maintain order at gas stations; the freight industry has seen delays in refueling, with daily travel distances dropping from 600-700 kilometers to about 500 kilometers, causing freight rates to rise.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova refuted Sikorski's remarks, claiming he suffers from "Russophobia." From a market perspective, the continued weakening of Russian refining capacity means its refined oil export capabilities are forced to contract, objectively raising global and European supply tensions for products like diesel, echoing previous warnings from JPMorgan about global crude oil inventories nearing their limits.
Source: Public Information
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Sikorski has long been a representative of the hardline faction within Poland and NATO regarding Russia. He has served as Poland's Minister of Defense and Foreign Minister, and after the 2025 incident of Russian drones invading Polish airspace, he has repeatedly warned of shooting down Russian aircraft that violate NATO airspace. This time, he is leveraging Ukraine's successes to send a message to Russia, continuing his consistent diplomatic style of "deterrence through strength."
Ukraine's ongoing strikes against Russian refining facilities are essentially aimed at destroying Russia's "capital"—each targeted refinery represents a loss of fixed assets and export earning capacity worth billions of dollars. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to divert resources from military and civilian sectors to repair refining facilities and manage fuel distribution, with funds and capacity being shifted from "incremental exports" to "stockpiling for stability."
This situation is highly reminiscent of the Allied strategic bombing of Germany's synthetic fuel plants at the end of World War II—at that time, the Allies judged that destroying fuel capacity would more effectively undermine the enemy's war machine than directly targeting the military. Currently, the Russian refining industry is in a continuous bleeding cycle of "systematic erosion of capacity, with repair speeds unable to keep up with the frequency of strikes," coinciding with a global crude oil supply tightening period.
Essentially, this represents a restructuring of the industrial chain—Russia's ongoing loss of refining capacity is reshaping global refined oil trade flows, with the share of Russian diesel and gasoline exports that would normally go to international markets being forced to contract, freeing up pricing power and market share for other oil-producing countries and refiners. At the same time, the emergence of fuel rationing in Russia signifies a deep structural shift in its energy supply chain from "market regulation" to "administrative control."
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Deterrence does not rely on rhetoric, but on the ruins of the opponent's refineries.
When you cannot defeat the army, first destroy its fuel tanks.
Once capacity is severely damaged, there are no bargaining chips at the negotiation table.