K33 Research Analyzes Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Signals
K33 Research points out that in past Bitcoin bear markets, bottoms occurred 13-101 days after the supply loss ratio exceeded 50%. Currently, it has been 42 days since this mark was reached in June.
Historical data shows that this indicator is highly correlated with cycle bottoms.
Cryptocurrency market cycle indicators guide capital flow, with investors focusing on potential bottom signals to drive Bitcoin-related asset allocation. Long-term holders benefit from potential rebounds while short-term traders face pressure, reinforcing Bitcoin's structural characteristics as a cyclical asset.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
K33 Research and other institutions have previously predicted cycle turning points using on-chain data such as the loss supply ratio, similar to how key signals were captured in the analysis of the 2022 bear market bottom.
On the capital path, this indicator triggers increased market attention, shifting funds from observation to BTC spot and derivatives. The motivation lies in historical statistics providing psychological anchor points, attracting bottom-fishing capital inflows to hedge against inflation and macro risks.
Similar to the application of MVRV and loss supply indicators in previous bear markets, Bitcoin is currently in a post-halving adjustment phase, with on-chain signals helping investors assess the cycle position.
Structural Judgment: Essentially, this involves capital concentration, with on-chain loss indicators serving as cycle anchor points guiding funds to concentrate in the bottom region, shifting pricing power from panic selling to value reassessment. The mechanism is that historical patterns reinforce consistency in market participant behavior.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- Loss supply exceeds half, bottom window has opened.
- History does not repeat, but the rhythm is highly similar.
- Bear market indicators are not predictions, but a countdown to capital restart.