The International Labour Organization has been releasing reports on youth employment trends since 2004. After the pandemic, the youth unemployment rate had dropped to a 20-year low, but it is projected to rise again in 2025 due to a combination of slowing growth and technological changes, mirroring the vulnerability of youth employment seen after the 2008 financial crisis, while also exposing structural issues related to the decline of medium-skilled positions.

In terms of capital pathways, AI is accelerating the replacement of routine cognitive tasks, leading companies to shift their hiring focus towards high-skilled and human-machine collaborative positions, with funding and training resources leaning towards reskilling and digital literacy, motivated by the desire to reduce labor costs and enhance productivity, while pushing youth from traditional entry-level positions into more uncertain competition.

Similar cases can be seen in the lagging transformation of low-skilled workers during the industrial revolution and automation waves, as well as the skills mismatch among youth following the internet bubble in the 2000s; currently, the world is in the early stages of AI penetration, with youth employment shifting from a quantity issue to challenges of quality and matching.

The structural judgment belongs to technological substitution: AI directly compresses medium-skilled entry-level positions, with the mechanism being automation replacing repetitive tasks, severing the traditional ladder for youth transitioning from low-skilled to high-skilled jobs, forcing the labor market to accelerate polarization towards both ends.

ABAB News · Cognitive Law

Rising youth unemployment rate = warning for future labor structure
AI first cuts entry-level positions, then forces skill leaps
Technological dividends do not automatically benefit new entrants