Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will host a press conference for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tomorrow (Thursday) at 2:30 PM Eastern Time, during which the market will learn the results of this interest rate decision.

Warsh was nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, confirmed by the Senate on May 13, and officially sworn in on May 22, becoming the new head of the Federal Reserve.

On August 28, Warsh delivered a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, expressing concerns about inflation, stating that the Federal Reserve "still has work to do" in combating inflation, and suggested that the Fed should become a "quieter" central bank, reducing reliance on external communication and forward guidance.

As a result of this statement, market expectations for the September FOMC meeting have shifted significantly—previously, the Fed chose to maintain interest rates at the July meeting, which had "lowered the threshold for subsequent actions"; reports indicate that the market now generally expects a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting, with some analysts linking it to recent energy price shocks that have driven up inflation.

However, there remains a divergence in the market regarding "whether Warsh will actually support a rate hike"; not all analysts agree that the current pricing for a rate hike is reasonable; this also means that tomorrow's press conference will be a key window for investors to observe Warsh's true stance on inflation and the interest rate path.

From a market mechanism perspective, if the Federal Reserve shifts to raising rates while the current rate-cutting cycle is not yet over, it would be a rare reversal of policy path, directly impacting the bond, stock, and foreign exchange markets—rising rate hike expectations typically push up the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing long-term growth stock valuations, while benefiting sectors like banks that are positively sensitive to interest rates; if Warsh signals a more hawkish or dovish stance than the market expects during the press conference, it could trigger immediate repricing in interest rate futures, the dollar index, and the stock market. Who benefits: If a rate hike occurs and the stance is hawkish, investors holding cash and short-duration assets, betting on a stronger dollar, will benefit; who is under pressure: high-leverage growth assets and some emerging market currencies that rely on a low-interest-rate environment may face greater selling pressure.

Public reports indicate that this is one of the important press conferences Warsh will host since taking office in May; he previously hosted a press conference after the FOMC meeting on June 17; the market's observation of his style also hinges on whether he continues the "quieter" central bank communication approach, reducing impromptu statements and details in forward guidance during each post-meeting press conference.

Source: Public Information