John Arnold, Co-Chair of Arnold Ventures, believes that computing power is not yet a commodity because the products delivered by one data center are not equivalent to those delivered by another. He proposed two paths to market: either deliver enough standardized products to buyers and sellers, or create a price index recognized by the entire industry.

He pointed out that short-term transactions are already few, and these transactions have even lower transparency. Different chip models, data center designs, and specific load requirements make it difficult to design a physical delivery mechanism and to create a trustworthy index. This statement was highlighted to explain why computing power futures have been stalled at the standardization stage for so long.

Arnold has a background in natural gas derivatives trading, having worked at Enron in natural gas derivatives before founding Centaurus. After exiting the hedge fund in 2012, he turned to philanthropy and policy. He has frequently analyzed AI infrastructure through the energy curve, stating that current near-term computing power is tight, with the curve showing backwardation, and the expected cost of new capacity is lower than the current spot price.

Exchanges are already competing for index entry. CME Group and Silicon Data plan to launch computing power futures based on H100 and B200 leasing indices, while ICE and Ornn have also announced contracts settled by trading-based computing power price indices, all pending regulatory review. Bloomberg has listed some leasing index codes, but the sampling methods and data center stratification are not uniform across firms.

BCG estimates that the AI computing power market is expected to grow from about $360 billion in 2025 to about $2.3 trillion by 2030, while listing the lack of consensus benchmarks as a liquidity barrier. Reports from buyers like Grayscale indicate that large-scale cloud providers still control about 70% of computing power capacity, with spot markets primarily dominated by long-term contracts and customized clusters, and spot short orders are insufficient to support continuous delivery.

In terms of market mechanisms, buyers are model companies and cloud providers looking to lock in training and inference costs, while sellers are large-scale clouds and new clouds holding powered capacity. The event driver is a capital expenditure race colliding with the inability to interchange data center quality. Funds continue to flow to powered cabinets that can sign long-term contracts, rather than to untrusted futures curves; those benefiting are holders who can package and sell chips, networks, and electricity, while those under pressure are trading desks trying to hedge overall market risk with a single index.

Source: Public Information