Polymarket has become a large-scale event contract trading venue during the 2026 World Cup, generating over 320,000 independent accounts and tens of millions of dollars in fees for a single event, validating the liquidity and user mobilization capabilities of prediction markets in major sports events; profitable accounts only account for one-third, indicating that the market overall still favors the house advantage.

In terms of capital flow, prediction markets capture trading volume and fees through high-volatility events, with extreme underdogs (such as Cape Verde drawing with Spain) potentially generating millions of dollars in profit for individual accounts, attracting speculative funds; at the same time, cross-match championship and individual award markets further amplify the total trading scale, concentrating resources on platforms that can quickly list and provide high liquidity.

Similar patterns can be seen in previous trading surges on Polymarket for political events like the U.S. elections: major events provide natural traffic, and fees become the core income for the platform. The current sports prediction market is still in a "event-driven + long-tail market in parallel" phase.

Essentially, this represents a transfer of pricing power: when traditional sports betting is restricted by regulations, decentralized prediction markets directly capture global trading demand with event contracts, shifting pricing and fee rights from licensed bookmakers to on-chain platforms.

ABAB News · Cognitive Law

The true value of major events lies in their ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of accounts instantly.
Profitable accounts account for less than 40%, which is the foundation for the market's long-term existence.
Once extreme underdogs appear, they will redistribute the entire season's profits.