U.S. Secretary of State Rubio: Cuba has long since collapsed

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Cuba has "long since collapsed" and is a "complete failed state" with a non-functioning economy, while the rulers continue to promote a revolution that has been "dead for 20 years" and has never succeeded.

He distinguished between the ability to suppress and the functionality of the state: the authorities can still imprison and kill, but it is not an effectively functioning government. Any profitable sectors are controlled by the military and the Communist Party, enriching a few. He noted that nearly 20% of the population has left since 2021 and expressed hope that some among those wielding power would see reality and change course. Concurrently, President Donald Trump referred to Cuba as an "absolute failed state" at the United Nations General Assembly, predicting its collapse, which led to the Cuban delegation leaving midway, with Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla denouncing it as a lie and denying the existence of formal negotiations.

In a congressional hearing, Rubio stated that the military holding company GAESA dominates about 70% of economic activity and controls approximately $18 billion in assets, with profits not remitted to the treasury. He pointed to long-term power outages and fuel shortages, asserting that the economic model "will never work." After the interruption of free oil from Venezuela, he mentioned that Cuba had resold about 60% of its oil for profit instead of repairing power plants. In August, he told the media that policies require patience, suggesting that the regime might last until after 2028.

During the UN General Assembly, he also stated that over sixty years of failed management, corruption, and incompetence cannot be reversed in six months, and that under the current governance model, no one is willing to invest. Washington claims to have contacted the Cuban side, proposing conditions for economic recovery, but believes that unless there is a change in personnel or mindset, reform is impossible. The Cuban government denies any negotiations.

For the U.S., a failed state combined with hostile forces just 90 miles away is considered a security issue and is linked to immigration overflow. Increased sanctions, disruption of oil sources, and pressure on the tourism industry are part of the same set of pressure tools. Havana, on the other hand, attributes the crisis to the blockade.

In market mechanisms, this is a re-pricing driven by political characterization, not trade normalization. Buyers are exiled capital betting on entering after a regime change and companies from third countries; sellers are military groups still controlling hotels, currency exchange, and imports. The current outflow of funds is from population and remittances, while inflows are foreign exchange that maintains repression. Beneficiaries are Miami capital treating Cuban assets as options, while pressures are on domestic consumption, the power grid, and state-owned enterprises still accounting at official exchange rates. The characterization itself does not change the immediate output of sugar, nickel, and tourism.

Source: Public Information