Polymarket and Kalshi Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeds $150 Billion
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi saw their cumulative trading volume surpass $150 billion in April, but their record of monthly growth for seven consecutive months has come to an end.
The number of active trading users on Polymarket dropped from 733,000 in March to approximately 643,000, directly contributing to the overall decline in trading volume.
Despite the slowdown in overall growth, Polymarket's U.S. operations continue to expand, and Kalshi also maintained an upward trend during the same period.
The primary reason for the decline in trading volume is the reduction in active users, rather than a depletion of demand; funds continue to concentrate on U.S. compliant businesses, indicating that institutions and professional traders are still increasing their allocation to prediction markets.
Cryptocurrency retail users are under pressure, while compliant platforms benefit relatively.
ABAB AI Insight
Polymarket has become the largest prediction market globally following explosive trading volume growth during the 2024 U.S. election, with previous record-breaking months primarily driven by election events and an influx of crypto users. Kalshi has achieved steady expansion with its U.S. domestic compliance license, together pushing prediction markets from a niche tool to a mainstream financial product.
In terms of capital flow, a large amount of crypto liquidity and retail funds are converted into trading revenue through platform betting, which is then used for product iteration and compliance expansion; the decline in users in April reflects that after the event-driven bonus fades, the platform must shift towards everyday events and institutional funds to maintain growth.
Similar to the early 2010s when crypto exchanges transitioned from the ICO boom to compliance development, prediction markets are currently at a critical stage of transforming from "event-driven explosion" to "normalized financial tools."
Structural judgment
Essentially, this is a technological substitution and industrial chain reconstruction: prediction markets are replacing some traditional polls and hedging tools with real-time crowd-sourced pricing mechanisms, with capital shifting from high-volatility event betting to stable compliant businesses, reconstructing the industrial chain of information pricing and risk management.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Event bonuses can lead to explosions, but user retention determines the moat.
Compliance licenses are more valuable than traffic, especially during tightening regulations.
Growth will eventually tire; the real barrier is turning one-time frenzy into recurring revenue.