IMF Analysis Indicates AI Will Impact Nearly 40% of Global Employment, with Exposure in Developed Economies Around 60%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis shows that artificial intelligence will affect nearly 40% of jobs globally, with exposure in developed economies around 60%, emerging markets about 40%, and low-income countries approximately 26%.
IMF President Kristalina Georgieva stated that in developed economies, about half of the affected jobs may see productivity gains due to AI integration, while the other half may have key tasks performed by AI, reducing labor demand, wages, and hiring, with some jobs potentially disappearing in extreme cases.
This analysis is based on the proportion of cognitive tasks in jobs that can be performed by AI, including translation, information summarization, and coding, differing from previous automation models that mainly replaced repetitive tasks.
Georgieva has repeatedly reiterated this assessment at venues like Davos, describing AI as a "tsunami" impacting the labor market, particularly affecting entry-level positions, with young people being the most vulnerable, and warned that it could exacerbate inequality.
The IMF recommends that countries build social safety nets and reform education systems to enhance skill adaptability, noting that the U.S., China, and India are major AI-producing countries, and related investments will help sustain global growth.
In the diffusion of AI technology, cognitive-intensive jobs are the main exposed targets, with funding and computing power concentrated among leading tech firms and model providers, benefiting high-skill complementary jobs while putting pressure on low-skill and entry-level positions, potentially adding 0.1% to 0.8% to global growth.
These estimates have been continuously cited since the IMF's research report in 2024, emphasizing the need for policies to balance productivity gains with employment impacts.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Since the IMF released its analysis report in 2024, it has continuously tracked the exposure of jobs to AI. Kristalina Georgieva has cited the estimate that about 40% of global employment is affected in multiple public forums, distinguishing the higher exposure in developed economies from the lower exposure in emerging markets. Historically, the IMF has similarly quantified the impact of automation and digitalization on the labor market in its assessments of technological change.
The capital and technology pathways are penetrating cognitive tasks with AI's computing power and model capabilities. Some jobs enhance productivity through tools, while key tasks in other jobs are replaced. The motivation is to quantify potential productivity gains and inequality risks to drive policy responses.
This is similar to previous assessments of the impact of automation and computerization on medium-skill jobs and aligns with estimates from institutions like Goldman Sachs regarding AI replacing the equivalent of 30 million full-time jobs; we are currently in the early stages of AI accelerating from an auxiliary tool to task replacement.
Essentially, this is a form of technological substitution: AI reduces the demand for certain labor by performing cognitive tasks, driven by improvements in model capabilities and task codability, while widening productivity gaps in complementary jobs.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
40% exposure ≠ 40% disappearance
Entry-level jobs are replaced first, high-skill jobs are enhanced first
AI impact = productivity gap × safety net shortfall